安徽省经济发展与农业污染的关联分析  

View into the relationship between agricultural pollution and economic growth in Anhui

作　　者：吴珺[1] 李浩[1] 曹德菊[1] 王光宇[2] 闫晓明[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽省农业科学院,合肥230031

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2014年第5期307-311,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：安徽省农业科学院科技创新团队项目(13C0203);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD14B13)

摘　　要：以安徽省化肥、地膜和农药投入密度为农业污染指标,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)分析安徽省经济增长与农业污染的关系。结果表明:安徽省化肥投入与经济发展的关系呈环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)倒U型,即经济发展到一定水平,化肥投入将逐渐减少,化肥造成的环境污染会减轻;而农药投入与经济发展的关系呈EKC倒U型左半段,未达转折点,即随着经济发展,农药投入在短时间内仍会增加,农药造成的环境污染仍会继续;经济发展曲线与地膜投入的关系为EKC"N"型(倒U+U型),存在两个转折点,说明安徽省经济发展对地膜投入的影响复杂,地膜施用量随经济发展会出现小的波动,但总体会持续走高。The paper intends to present our view into the relationship between the agricultural pollution and economic growth in Anhui. For our research purpose, we have chosen to take the density of fertilizer and mulch and pesticides as the indicators of agricultural pollution by using the environmental Kuznets curve （EKC） as a research parameter. The results of our research indicate that ： with the increase of the per-capita GDP, an inverted Ushape curve of the environmental Kuznets would come with the relationship between the inputs of fertil- izer and economic growth in the Province. To be accurate, the relationship has now reached the turning point when the percapita GDP increased by 15 000 yuan, whereas the input of fertilier began to fall. That is to say, the fertilizer input is likely to be gradually lowend so as to ameliorate the environmental〈pollution caused by the fertilizer when the economic growth comes to a certain level. So it is the relation between the input of pesticide and the economic growth, which takes on the left half of the segment of inverted ＂U＂ by EKC in Anhui. The situation also means that the use of pesticide is likely to continue to grow in a short period of time with the economic develop＇- ment, and so does the environmental pollution. However, the relation between the mulch investment and economic development tends to take on the ＂N＂ shape curve of EKC （inverted ＂U＂ and U-type）, that is, there would be two turning points in the curve, a more complicated relation between the mulch film pollution and economic growth in the Province. To be brief, the usage of mulch would increase when people were living at a lower per-caplta income. The first turning point tends to appear when their per-capita GDP came to ￥ 9 225, and then the mulch film input would drop. The second turning point would appear when their per-capita GDP grew to ￥ 15 463. And, then, the mulch input would increase again with the per-capita GDP further rise. Therefore, it can be concluded that the mulc

关 键 词：环境学 环境库茨涅茨(EKC)曲线 农业污染 经济增长 安徽省 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]