台风形成库区降雨的影响因子挖掘  

Impact factors mining of reservoir rainfall caused by typhoon

作　　者：李子阳[1] 张湛[2] 马福恒[1] 李成才[3] 潘树军[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210029 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [3]河海大学土木与交通学院,南京210098 [4]河海大学设计研究院有限公司,南京210098

出　　处：《中国科学：技术科学》2014年第10期1020-1026,共7页Scientia Sinica(Technologica)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:51209144;51209145;51209143;51139001;51109143);水利部公益性行业科研专项(编号:201401022);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(批准号:Y713008;Y714014)资助项目

摘　　要：考虑影响台风降雨因素的复杂性以及现有水库台风遥测资料的不完备性,采用基于信息熵与条件信息熵建立起来的不完备信息系统的约简方法,对台风形成库区降雨的影响因子进行挖掘.以典型水库中的台风特性参数及库区降雨实时监测信息为依据,忽略环境因素影响,重点研究包括台风风速、风力、7级/10级风圈半径、中心气压、台风中心与库区距离等典型台风特性因子对库区降雨量的影响,经信息约简认为台风风速、中心气压、与库区距离等台风特性因子是库区降雨的主要影响因子.分析结果对水库台风监测及库区降雨强度分析具有一定指导作用.Considering the complexity of the factors affecting typhoon rainfall and incompleteness of typhoon monitoring data, based on incomplete information system reduction method set up by information entropy and information entropy conditions, hazard factors of typhoon causing reservoir rainfall are excavated. Taking the monitoring data of typhoon parameters and reservoir rainfall of some typical engineering as an example, the relationships between the amount of reservoir rainfall and typhoon characteristic factors are analyzed, including wind speed, wind force, 7/10 wind circle radius, central pressure, the distance between the typhoon center and engineering area without the environment factors. With information reduction, the conclusion are that the typhoon wind speed, central pressure and the distance are the major typhoon impact factors. The results have a certain guiding role for the typhoon monitoring and analysis of the rainfall intensity.

关 键 词：台风 库区降雨 影响因子 信息约简 

分 类 号：TV697.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]