中欧贸易隐含碳排放及其影响因素——基于MRIO模型和LMDI方法的分析  

Carbon Emissions Embodied in Sino-EU Trade and the Influence Factors:An Analysis Based on MRIO Model and LMDI Method

作　　者：庞军[1] 张浚哲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2014年第11期51-65,共15页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(14XNJ008)

摘　　要：文章基于GTAP8构建MRIO模型，计算了中国和欧盟基于生产端和消费端的CO2排放量，以及中国和欧盟对外贸易隐合碳排放及行业分布。并采用LMDI方法将2004～2007年中欧双边贸易中隐含碳变化的影响因素分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。结果表明：中国基于生产端的CO2排放量明显高于消费端，欧盟则相反；中国是典型的隐含碳排放净出口国，欧盟则是典型的隐合碳排放净进口地区。2004～2007年．中国对欧盟出口隐含碳排放总量增加显著．其中出口规模的扩大是导致增加的主要原因，技术进步起着削减作用，结构效应总体为增加作用但程度很小；同期欧盟对中国出口隐含碳排放总量的增幅较小．其中规模效应起着增加的作用，而技术效应和结构效应则起着削减作用。By constructing the global multi-regional input-output （MRIO） model based on the GTAP8 database, this paper calculates the production-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions of China and the EU as well as the CO2 emissions embodied in foreign trade and their industrial distribution. In addition, it adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） method to decompose the driving forces leading to the change of CO2 emissions embodied in 2004-2007 Sino-EU trade into scale effect, structure effect and technology effect. The results indicate that the production-based CO2 emissions of China are much higher than the consumption-based ones, but the contrary is the case for the EU. China is a typical net exporter of embodied CO2 emissions whereas the EU is a typical net importer. The main reason that the total CO2 emissions embodied in exports of China to the EU increase significantly is the expansion of export scale, with the structure effect increasing it by a small amount but the technology effect reducing it by a large scale. Meanwhile, the total CO2 emissions embodied in exports of the EU to China only increase by a small extent, with the scale effect playing a positive role but the structure effect and the technology effect playing a negative role.

关 键 词：MRIO GTAP 中国-欧盟 隐含碳排放 LMDI 

分 类 号：F740.6[经济管理—国际贸易]