中国与挪威双边经贸关系发展潜力分析  

Analysis of the Development Potential of Bilateral Trade Relation between China and Norway

作　　者：汪文卿[1] 刘晓锋 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经贸学院,北京100029 [2]中国出口信用保险公司,北京100033

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2014年第11期66-80,共15页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：对外经贸大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(13QNFX03)

摘　　要：文章运用显性比较优势指数、贸易互补指数和出口相似度指数,测算了中国与挪威货物贸易的互补性与竞争性关系,对中国与挪威建立自贸区可能带来的经济效应进行了分析。结果表明,中国与挪威各自具有国际竞争力的产业互不重合,双边货物贸易具有较强的互补性,两国经贸关系的发展具有非常大的潜力。中挪贸易不仅具有产业间的互补性,在机械与运输设备产品类别中,还具有产业内的贸易互补性。在此基础上,进一步测算了中国与挪威的贸易潜力,计量分析的结果表明,中国与挪威的贸易处于严重不足的状态,两国发展经贸关系的空间非常广阔。This paper applies a number of indices such as revealed comparative advantage index, trade complementarity index and export similarity index to analyze the goods trade complementarity and competitiveness between China and Norway and examine how viable the China-Norway FTA is. The empirical result shows China＇s internationally competitive industries do not coincide with Norway＇s. There exists a strong complementarity in bilateral trade. The trade comlementarity exists not only across different industries, but also inside the machinery and transport equipment industry. Based on the analysis, this paper also calculates the trade potential between China and Norway, and finds that the actual trade value between them is much less than the analog value, so there is a broad space for the development of bilateral trade between China and Norway.

关 键 词：中国 挪威 贸易互补 自贸区 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]