贸易条件、实质所得与贸易余额关系研究——以台湾纺织业为例  

Study of the Relationship among Terms of Trade, Real Income and Balance of Trade for Textile Industry in Taiwan

作　　者：柯胜挥 林根兴 

机构地区：[1]台湾中国文化大学国际贸易学系,台北11114

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2014年第11期93-105,共13页International Economics and Trade Research

摘　　要：1950年代Harberger-Laursen-Metzler提出贸易条件的不利冲击将降低实质所得并造成经常帐的恶化。文章依循HLM效应理论架构,建立台湾纺织业贸易条件、实质所得及该产业贸易余额的实证模型。利用单根检定、共整合检定、结构式向量自我回归、冲击反应函数及预测误差变异分解等实证步骤,进行动态效果评估。实证结果发现台湾纺织业贸易条件的非预期正向冲击,对台湾实质国民所得有立即且正向的影响,但对纺织业贸易余额则有立即且负向的影响,不符合HLM效应。而台湾纺织业贸易条件变动对贸易余额的影响不大,变量间亦不存在长期均衡关系。In 1950s, Harberger and Laursen and Metzler argued that an adverse shock to the terms of trade would worsen the real income and the current account balance. According to Harberger-Laursen-Metzler＇s framework of effective theory, this paper establishes an empirical model for the terms of trade for textile industry, the real income and the industrial trade balance in Taiwan. And by using the empirical process of unit-root test, cointegration test, structural vector autoregression model, impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition, it estimates dynamic effects. The empirical results show that an unanticipated positive shock to the terms of trade for textile industry in Taiwan leads to an immediate and positive effect on Taiwan Residents real income, but an adverse effect on industrial trade balance. This is not consistent with HLM effect. The effect of the change of the terms of trade for textile industry in Taiwan on industrial trade balance is moderate, and there is not a long-run equilibrium relationship among the above variables.

关 键 词：贸易条件冲击 贸易余额 HLM效应 结构式向量自我回归 

分 类 号：F740.6[经济管理—国际贸易]