产业专业化能促进城市经济增长吗？--基于广东省21个地级市面板数据的实证研究  

Can Industrial Specialization Boost City Economic Growth?——Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of 21 Cities of Guangdong Province

作　　者：俞梅珍[1] 林志帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学

出　　处：《产经评论》2014年第5期139-148,共10页Industrial Economic Review

摘　　要：利用广东省21个地级市2000-2011年间的面板数据研究产业专业化对城市经济增长的影响。在对城市经济规模、投资水平、非农产业比重、是否为副省级城市、是否为珠三角城市、是否为沿海港口城市等因素进行控制后发现,从总体上看,产业专业化对经济增长的促进作用不显著。使用面板门槛模型对产业专业化的潜在异质性进行深入研究,发现其对经济增长的影响具有明显的倒U型的非线性特征:产业专业化对城市经济增长的促进有一个最优的临界水平;在到达该临界水平前,产业专业化程度提高能够显著促进城市经济增长;但在越过该临界水平后,过度的产业专业化反而不利于城市经济增长。同时,根据这一研究结论提出了相关政策建议。This paper studies the influence of industrial specialization on city economic growth using pan-el data of 21 Guangdong cities from 2000 to 2011. We discover that,in general,industrial specialization has weak influence on city economic growth after controlling for city economic scale,investment intensity,weight of non-agriculture sector and other city specific characteristics. We further explore the potential heterogene-ous influence of industrial specialization using panel threshold model and detect an inverse U shape pattern：before reaching the optimal level,industrial specialization can significantly boost city economic growth;but af-ter passing the threshold value,over-specialization in turn suppresses economic growth. This paper concludes with some discussions and policy recommendations regarding the reality of Guangdong Province.

关 键 词：产业专业化 经济增长 面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]