海河流域60年降水量的变化及未来情景分析  

Analysis of precipitation in the Haihe River basin during the last decades of years and future scenarios

作　　者：鲍振鑫[1,2] 张建云[1,2] 严小林[1,2] 王国庆[1,2] 贺瑞敏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2014年第5期8-13,共6页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41401023;41330854);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC21B01;2012BAC19B03);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金(2013490411)

摘　　要：降水量是水文循环的重要因素。利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法,分析了1951—2010年海河流域降水量的历史演变规律;并根据大气环流数据分析了降水变化的原因;利用全球气候模式数据预测了未来降水量的可能变化情景。主要结论为:(1)1951—2010年,海河流域的年降水量呈显著减少趋势,达到了5%的显著性水平,其中夏季降水减少的幅度最大。(2)南方涛动指数(SOI)和海河流域降水具有较好的正相关,而太平洋年代波动(PDO)和太平洋年代内的波动(IPO)与海河流域降水具有较好的负相关。(3)在未来气候变化背景下,海河流域的年降水量和月降水量都将呈现出增加趋势;在A1B情景下,总体上流域东部降水量的增加幅度要大于流域西部。相关研究成果对于保障流域的水资源安全,支撑区域经济社会可持续发展,具有重要的科学价值和实际意义。The precipitation is an important component of the hydrological circle. Using the Mann-Kendall＇s testing method, the studies of the variation tendency of the precipitation daring 1951--2010 has been carried oat for the Haihe River basin （HRB）. The attribution for the precipitation has been analyzed based on the atmosphere circulation data. The future scenario for the precipitation is estimated by use of the data obtained from the Global climate models （GCMs）. The analysis results indicate that： （1）There is a significant decreasing trend toward the precipitation, which reaches 5 per cent of the precipitation in the Haihe River basin during 1951--2010, and it shows a decided tendency to decrease in the summer. （2）There is a positive relationship between the precipitation and Southern oscillation index （SOI） ; but a negative relationship between the precipitation and Pacific decadal oscillation （PDO） or Interdceadal Pacific oscillation （IPO）. （3）The annual and monthly precipitation might increase against a background of the climate changes in the Haihe River basin in the future. Generally, under the A1B scenario, the increasing trend of the precipitation in the eastern Haihe River basin is higher than that in the western Haihe River basin. These analysis results would be of significance for water resources security and regional social-economic development.

关 键 词：降水量 海河流域 演变规律 成因 未来情景 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]