中国外贸收支顺差的根源探析——基于跨期一般均衡理论的视角  

Research into the Causes of China's Foreign Trade Surplus—Based on the Perspective of Intertemporal General Equilibrium Theory

作　　者：周小琳[1] 王浩明[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学经济管理学院,132012 [2]内蒙古财经大学,010070

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2014年第10期25-36,共12页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目;后金融危机时代国际原油价格波动的阶段特征及对我国宏观经济影响的计量研究(12YJA790146)

摘　　要：本文以利润最大化及跨期消费理论为基础,构建外贸收支一般均衡模型,对中国外贸收支顺差的成因进行实证分析。结果表明:导致我国外贸收支持续顺差的根本原因是人民币汇率低估、汇率的价格传导机制失效及政府政策引致性扭曲。由于加工贸易顺差几乎占据了我国外贸收支顺差的全部,这种顺差给中国带来了巨大的福利损失。我国的加工贸易顺差已经成为一种结构性问题,当前中国并不具备人民币大幅升值的条件,调整顺差的关键是以产业政策带动外贸结构及产业结构的升级。In this paper, we build the general equilibrium model of trade balance based on the theory of profit maximization and intertemporal consumption, and the empirical test for the causes of China＇s foreign balance surplus comes to the conclusion： Undervaluation of RMB exchange rate, the failure of the price transmission mechanism of exchange rate and the distortions caused by government policies are the essential reason for China＇s trade surplus. The surplus has brought huge loss to Chinese benefits due to the processing trade surplus accounted for nearly one hundred percent of China＇s foreign trade surplus. China ＂s processing trade surplus has become a structural problem, as a substantial appreciation of RMB is unfeasible for China now, the key to adjust surplus is to upgrading the structure of foreign trade and industry by industrial policy.

关 键 词：跨期一般均衡理论 外贸收支顺差 人民币汇率低估 汇率价格传导机制失效 

分 类 号：F832.63[经济管理—金融学]