基于系统动力学的石油勘探开发投入产出规律研究  

The Input-output Rule Research of Petroleum Exploration and Development Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：鞠小玉[1,2] 邢梓 刘清志[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580 [2]中国石油冀东油田分公司工程造价中心,河北唐山064300

出　　处：《河南科学》2014年第10期2162-2167,共6页Henan Science

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(14CX06021B)

摘　　要：针对现阶段石油资源的约束性以及增储上产形势的紧迫需要,选取石油价格、采收率和每万t探明石油地质储量需直接投资3项不确定因素进行灵敏度分析,得出不同变量对投入产出指标的敏感性大小.据此总结石油勘探开发投入产出规律,以便于企业在实际操作中科学合理的运用,保证油田投入产出的稳步发展.For the binding of petroleum resources at this stage and the urgent need of increasing reserves andproduction in this situation,the paper proposes the law of oil exploration and development based on input-outputsystem dynamics studies. Select oil prices,recovery,and every ten thousand tons of proven oil reserves need todirect investment three uncertain factors to conduct the sensitivity analysis,we can analyze the different sensitivityof different variables on the input and output index. According to the results,we can summarize laws and conclusionsof the input and output,which are facilitate for enterprises to use rationally and scientifically in practice,ensuring thesteady development of input and output.

关 键 词：系统动力学 石油勘探 投入产出 规律 

分 类 号：F402[经济管理—产业经济]