乐山市土地人口承载力研究  

Population Carrying Capacity of Land in Leshan City

作　　者：尹春燕[1] 匡鸿海[1] 高勇[2] 蒋大林[1] 冉清红[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学院,重庆北碚415700 [2]四川师范大学地理与资源科学学院,成都610068 [3]成都师范学院史地与旅游系,成都611130

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2014年第17期4048-4051,4055,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目(10XJY0021);"十二五"农村领域国家科技计划项目(2012BAJ23B00)

摘　　要：采用土地资源承载力模型计算乐山市土地人口承载力现状,利用线性回归统计模型,并结合以温饱型、小康型及富裕型3种消费水平为标准的土地人口承载力计算方法,对乐山市2003-2020年的土地人口承载力进行预测分析.结果表明,乐山市2003-2012年土地人口均超载,但超载率总体呈下降趋势,2013-2020年的未来8年乐山市均可满足温饱型粮食消费需求,但未达到小康型与富裕型人口粮食消费需求,预计人口比以上两种类型消费水平分别超载23.58万和56.84万人.2020年乐山市土地人口承载力预测最佳规模为360万～370万人.为此,提出控制人口增长、严格保护耕地、提高劳动者素质及提高耕地质量的建议.Based on the capacity model of land resource, the situation of land population carrying capacity of Leshan city was calculated. Combining 3 kinds of consumption level including the subsistence level,the well-off level and the wealthy level, the linear regression model and the land population carrying capacity of Leshan city between 2013 and 2020 was predicted and analyzed. Results showed that the population carrying capacity of land in Leshan city between 2003 and 2012 was overloaded with a downward trend. The Leshan city can meet the demand of subsistence consumption level in the future 8 years,but can＇t reach the well-off and wealthy population food consumption level with a overloading population of 235 800 and 568 400, respectively. By predicting the population carrying capacity of land in Leshan city in 2020, the optimized population scale is between 3 600 000 and 3 700 000. It is advices to control population growth,protect strictly the arable land, and improve the quality of workers for the sustainable development of Leshan city.

关 键 词：土地人口承载力 线性回归 乐山市 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]