基于SD模型的政府航空管制影响分析  

Analysis of government aviation regulatory impact based on SD model

作　　者：唐小卫[1] 王岩华[1] 徐瑞时 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106

出　　处：《中国民航大学学报》2014年第5期58-60,64,共4页Journal of Civil Aviation University of China

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(1007-56XAA12076);南京航空航天大学民航学院青年基金(072012003)

摘　　要：随着经济的快速发展,中国航空运输业取得了显著的发展,开始从民航大国向民航强国迈进。同时,航空运输业的发展趋势是自由化,即政府对航空运输企业经营活动从详尽管理过渡到更多地依靠市场力量予以调节,给予航空运输企业更多的经营权和灵活性。借鉴了国外放松管制的经验,以系统动力学方法为基础,对政府航线管制进行分析研究。建立SD模型,分析不同的航空运输发展水平下政府放松航线管制对航空运输系统带来的影响。研究结果表明,当航空运输市场越发达、越完善,政府放松航线管制对航空运输系统的促进作用越大。最后,对中国下一阶段政府航空管制的思路提出相应的建议和措施。With the rapid economic growth, China＇s aviation industry has ach.ieved remarkable development, which makes China changing from big country into powerful nation in the field of civil aviation. Meanwhile, liberalization be- comes the developing trend of air transportation industry; namely government＇ s management to aviation trans- portation enterprises has transferred from comprehensive supervision into regulation relying more on market forces, giving more options and flexibility. Drawing lessons from foreign deregulation experiences, government＇ s route regulation is analyzed by using system dynamics method. SD model is established to analyze the impact of government airline deregulation to air transport system under different air transportation developing levels. Re- search results show that, with more developed and more perfect aviation transportation market, government＇s airline deregulation has bigger promotion to the aviation transportation system. Finally, corresponding sugges- tions and measures are put forward to China＇ s government route control in next stage.

关 键 词：航空运输系统 政府管制 SD模型 

分 类 号：V355[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程] F560[经济管理—产业经济]