航道通航风险评价的熵权物元模型  

Risk Evaluation of Waterway Environment Based on Entropy Weight and Matter Element Model

作　　者：吴定勇[1] 文元桥[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,武汉430063

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2014年第5期1158-1162,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：交通西部建设科技项目(批准号:201132820190);浙江省交通运输厅科技计划项目(批准号:2011W04);2013年度海事科技项目资助

摘　　要：为定量评价航道水域通航环境风险,确定不同航道安全程度,同时克服各风险评价指标权重分配中的不确定性和易受主观因素影响的问题,结合物元模型和熵权理论,建立通航环境风险评价的熵权物元模型.选用五条航道水域作为实例,运用建立的模型定量评价各航道通航环境风险,结果显示每条航道均处于"较低危险度"等级,但安全程度略不相同.选用其中一条航道评价结果与模糊综合评判法的评价结果进行对比,结果表明2种方法评价结论一致,证明熵权物元模型具有实用性和简洁性的特点,可用于航道通航风险评价.To evaluate the risk of waterway navigation environment quantitatively and determine the degree of different waterways’ safety,an entropy weight and matter element model was established by combining the matter element model with the entropy weight theory which can overcome the uncertainty of the weight distribution of risk evaluation index and the influence of subjective factors problem.Then five waterways were selected as case study,used the established model to evaluate the risk of the waterways,the results showed that every waterway was in the＂second lower risk degree＂level,however,the true degree of safety were different from one another.Taking one waterway as example and compared the result by entropy weight and matter element model with that by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,it indicated that the results by the two methods were consistent,and proofed that the entropy weight and matter element model has the characteristics of practicability and simplicity,and can be used to evaluate the risk of waterway navigation environment.

关 键 词：航道 通航风险 风险评价 熵权 物元模型 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U698.5[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]