住房价格与中国居民储蓄率——基于面板联立方程的经验分析  

Housing Prices and China's Household Saving Rates:An Empirical Analysis Base on the Simultaneous Equations Model

作　　者：骆祖春[1] 李勇刚[2] 李祥[3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省社会科学院财贸研究所,江苏南京210013 [2]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [3]中国建设银行江苏省分行住房金融与个人信贷部,江苏南京210002

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第6期88-97,共10页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD025);国家社会科学基金一般项目(10BJY094);国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CJY028);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(10JZD0025);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJC790086);安徽高校省级人文社会科学研究一般项目(SK2013B017)

摘　　要：本文基于世代交叠模型,引入住房消费因素,构建两期交叠模型研究房价与储蓄率的关系。研究发现房价与储蓄率之间存在负向的相互影响,进而利用1999—2011年中国31个省市区的面板数据,构建面板联立方程模型对房价与储蓄率的关系进行实证检验。研究结果发现,房价对居民储蓄率的影响显著为负,房价的上涨并未导致居民储蓄率的提高,反而导致"储蓄搬家"现象的产生。同时,房价与居民储蓄率之间存在内生性关系以及非对称的负向互动影响,且房价对居民储蓄率的负向作用程度更大。进一步研究发现,收入水平的提高、老龄化的加快、收入差距的扩大与未来收入的不确定性均显著促进居民储蓄率的提高。此外,因短期内中国传统的节俭习惯难以逆转,中国居民储蓄行为存在"棘轮效应"。Based on the overlapping generation models, and then introduction of housing consumption factors, this paper builds two-stage overlapping generation models to study the relationship between housing prices and savings rates.It is found that there is negative influence each other between housing prices and sav-ings rates.The paper also builds a dynamic panel simultaneous model to take empirical test on the relationship between housing prices and savings rates using the panel data of provinces from 1999 to 2011.The result shows that the housing prices have a significantly negative influence on the savings rates, but the housing prices raise didn＇t result the saving rate raise.And it leads to the phenomenon of ＂savings to move＂.At the same time, it has an endogenous and asymmetric negative interaction effects relationship between the housing prices and savings rate.And housing prices has a bigger negative influence on the savings rates.The further studies show that the improvement of income level, acceleration of the aging, the enlargement of income gap and the uncertainty of future income promote the savings rates significantly.In addition, because the Chinese traditional consumption habits are hard to reverse in the short time, there exists a ＂ratchet effect＂in China＇s household savings behavior.

关 键 词：房价 储蓄率 面板联立方程 

分 类 号：F832.22[经济管理—金融学]