城镇化与服务业发展的互动效应——基于PVAR模型的研究  

Interactive Effect between Urbanization and Development of Service Industry:Study Based on PVAR Model

作　　者：杨敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济管理学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《技术经济》2014年第11期44-51,132,共9页Journal of Technology Economics

摘　　要：利用1990—2012年全国省级面板数据,构建PVAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解方法探讨了全国及三大区域的城镇化与服务业发展的动态关系。研究结果显示:城镇化进程与服务业发展互相促进,服务业发展对城镇化进程的促进作用大于城镇化对服务业发展的贡献,且两者的动态关系在中国东部、中部和西部三大区域表现出明显的差异性。Based on the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2012,this paper establishes a PVAR model to investigate the dynamic relationship between the urbanization and the development of service industry in whole nation and three regions of east-central-west respectively, by employing the impulse response function and forecasting the variance decomposition. The results indicate that the urbanization process and the development of service industry promote each other. However, the promoting effect of the latter to the former is larger than that of the former to the latter, and there is the obvious differences in the dynamic relationship of them in the eastern, central and western areas of China.

关 键 词：城镇化 服务业发展 互动效应 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F719F224