技术进步、能源效率与回弹效应——来自中国省际面板数据的经验测算  

Technological Progress,Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effect——Empirical Estimation Basedon China's Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：张江山[1] 张旭昆[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027 [2]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2014年第11期50-59,共10页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"制度性贫困与包容性增长减贫模式研究"(11CJL033)

摘　　要：从能源效率弹性定义出发，将能源效率和劳动供给引入内生增长模型，构建了中国长期能源回弹效应的宏观模型，利用省级面板数据测算了全国以及28个省份1987～2012年的能源回弹效应。结果表明：（1）中国宏观经济的能源回弹效应均值为85．89％，东、中、西部分别为87．24％、88．66％和82．35％，能源效率提高引致的节能效果绝大部分并未实现，且历年回弹效应的变化并没有出现稳定的规律；（2）各省能源回弹效应总体表现为部分回弹，随着时间而变化的趋势存在一定差异性。本文的结论和政策含义为制定合理的长期能源政策组合提供有益参考。This paper introduced energy efficiency and labor supply to the endogenous growth model from the energy efficiency elas- ticity definition, and built the long-term China＇s macro energy rebound effect model to estimate national and provincial energy rebound effect in 1987-2012 by using provincial panel data. The results showed that： （ 1 ） China＇s macroeconomic energy rebound effect is 85.89%, the rebound effect of eastern area, midland area, western area are 87.24%, 88.66% and 82.35%, respectively. Energy savings resulting from energy efficiency improvement have not been totally realized. There has been no particular change trend about the rebound effect size over years. （2） All provinces represent partial rebound as a whole, but.there are some differences among the provinces over time. The paper and its implications provide a useful reference to make long-term energy policy for energy policymakers.

关 键 词：技术进步 能源效率 回弹效应 测算 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]