中国船舶贸易出口流量分析  

Analysis of China's Shipping Export Trade Flow

作　　者：邵桂兰[1] 郑剑萌 李晨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第4期12-16,共5页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"我国海洋优势产业培育及发展战略研究"(11JJD790041);民生科技计划软科学研究项目"青岛市国际航运服务业创新发展研究(13-1-3-139-13-(3)-zhc)"相关研究成果

摘　　要：中国是世界船舶贸易大国,船舶产品出口在世界市场上占据重要地位,亚欧地区为其两大传统出口目的地。近年来,欧美经济复苏缓慢,人民币升值趋势明显,中国船舶出口面临新的挑战。截取中国和世界27个国家和地区2002-2011年10年间船舶产品贸易出口流量数据,通过构建引力模型,运用面板数据回归对其贸易流量及影响因素进行实证研究显示,经济规模的扩大和FTA的构建可以促进中国船舶出口流量的增加,地理距离对出口流量具有阻碍作用,汇率的波动显著影响船舶出口流量的变动。China is one of the world＇s biggest shipping trade countries ,and its export shipping products take an important place in the world market with Asia and Europe as the two traditional export markets . In recent years ,the slow-recovered Euro-American economy and the evident trend of RMB appreciation have brought new challenges to China＇s shipping export .Based on gravity model and panel data regression , this paper collects the data of shipping products export trade flow of China and the world＇s other 27 coun-tries and regions from 2002 to 2011 and analyzes the export trade flow and its influential factors .The re-sults show that enlarged economy scale and construction of FT A can boost China＇s shipping export trade flow ,geographic distance acts as a negative factor ,and that fluctuation of foreign exchange rate affects the change of shipping export significantly .

关 键 词：船舶产品 出口流量 贸易潜力 引力模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]