基于企业经营预期下的资本结构调整——来自我国制造业上市公司的经验证据  

The Study on Capital Structure Adjustment Based on the Future Business——Evidence from Listed Manufacturing Firms in China

作　　者：张春景[1,2,3] 马文超[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学财经学院,212013 [2]南京大学管理学院,210093 [3]浙江工商大学财务与会计学院,310018

出　　处：《会计研究》2014年第8期67-74,97,共8页Accounting Research

摘　　要：作为企业财务战略之一的资本结构决策必须要考虑未来经营预期的影响。本文利用上市公司的财务数据研究发现,当企业预期盈余下降时,将会变卖资产偿还债务并通过降低股利支付率的方式降低负债率。该结论与认为预期盈利能力和负债率正相关的资本结构权衡理论一致。进一步的分析表明,预期盈余对资本结构的作用机制是通过负债的税收利益和财务困境成本变动来调整最佳资本结构。Future business must be considered when making capital structure decision. Using the financial data of listing firm,I show that firms experiencing decreases in expected earnings reduce their leverage ratios by selling assets and reducing dividend. The results are consistent with trade- off theory that predicts a positive relation between leverage and expected profitability. Further evidence suggests that expected earnings affects leverage through change of the tax benefits and the financial distress cost.

关 键 词：预期盈余 最佳负债率 税收利益 财务困境成本 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F406.7F224