晚清财政规模估算问题初探  

The Primitive Research of Estimating Fiscal Size in the Late Qing Dynasty

作　　者：韩祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学清史研究所

出　　处：《中国经济史研究》2014年第3期25-41,175,共17页Researches in Chinese Economic History

基　　金：教育部2012年度"博士研究生学术新人奖"资助项目(项目批准号26226025)

摘　　要：当前对晚清财政规模的研究,大多或是直接转引史料数据,或是将史料数据简单分类汇总,极少对既有史料数据及其统计方法进行细致的校核,故在此问题上自清末至今仍没有取得实质性进步。若将一些基础性因素纳入考虑范围(如计量单位混杂、重复统计、统计区域缺漏、数据呈报滞后等问题),则可以对晚清的财政规模估算进行重新审视与修正。在现有史料条件下,相对可靠地重新估算光绪三十四年(1908)的财政规模,具有比较高的可操作性,在统计方法上亦能对晚清财政史的研究有所推进。The present researches about the fiscal size of the late Qing Dynasty,which directly cite the historical data or simply total the historical data,rarely check the historical data sources and statistical methods.So there is not the substantive progress on this question' research since late Qing dynasty.If we take some basic factors into account(such as the unit of measurement,repetitive statistics,shortage of some statistical regions,hysteretic data reporting),we can reexamine and correct the fiscal size of the late Qing dynasty.Due to the current historical material or data,it becomes relatively reliable to estimate the real fiscal size of 34 th year of Guangxu(1908),which would promote the study of financial history of the late Qing dynasty.

关 键 词：光绪三十四年 财政规模 岁入 岁出 统计方法 

分 类 号：F812.9[经济管理—财政学]