绿色悖论抑或倒逼减排——环境规制对碳排放影响的双重效应  

Green Paradox or Forced Emission-reduction: Dual Effect of Environmental Regulation on Carbon Emissions

作　　者：张华[1] 魏晓平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第9期21-29,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"我国矿产资源跨期优化配置机制研究"(编号:11&ZD163);江苏高校国际能源政策研究中心资助;江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目"环境规制缓解能源稀缺性与外部性的作用机理及实证研究"(编号:CXZZ14_379)

摘　　要：从环境规制对碳排放影响这一基本问题出发,针对可能发生的绿色悖论与倒逼减排两种结果进行理论阐释,认为环境规制不仅会对碳排放产生直接影响,而且会通过能源消费结构、产业结构、技术创新和FDI四条传导渠道间接影响碳排放。在此基础上,本文利用2000-2011年中国省级面板数据,采用两步GMM法实证分析了环境规制对碳排放影响的双重效应。具体而言,通过引入环境规制的平方项考察环境规制与碳排放之间非线性的直接关系,并且构造环境规制与能源消费结构、产业结构、技术创新和FDI的交叉项探求环境规制影响碳排放的间接效应。研究结果表明:环境规制对碳排放的直接影响轨迹呈倒U型曲线,随着环境规制强度由弱变强,影响效应由"绿色悖论"效应转变为"倒逼减排"效应。就中国的实际情况而言,现阶段环境规制有效遏制碳排放,达到预期效果。无论是否具有环境规制约束,能源消费结构均是显著增加碳排放的重要诱因,蕴含环境规制尚未低碳化能源消费结构。环境规制倒逼产业结构高级化和刺激技术创新,扭转了产业结构和技术创新对碳排放的作用方向。令人遗憾的是,环境规制同时抑制了FDI的环境溢出效应和资本累积效应以及削弱本国企业的技术吸收能力,致使FDI表现为"污染避难所"效应。因此,政府应该适度加强环境规制强度和合理选择环境规制工具,使得倒U型曲线的下降阶段更加显著与持久。同时,改革能源价格、提高环保技术以及优化FDI的引资和用资策略,从而充分发挥环境规制的碳减排效应。Focusing on the basic issue how environmental regulation affects carbon emissions and theoretically explaining two possible results about green paradox and forced emission-reduction, we believe that enviromnental regulation will not only have a direct impact on carbon emissions, but also exert an indirect impact by four transmission channels of the energy consumption structure, industrial structure, technological innovation and FDI. On this basis, we empirically analyze the dual effects of environmental regulation on carbon emissions through China＇ s provincial panel data during 2000 -2011, with two-step GMM method. Specifically, introducing the square term of environmental regulation, we investigate nonlinear direct relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emissions. Furthermore, we construct cross terms of environmental regulation and energy consumption structure, industrial structure, technological innovation ＆ FDI to explore indirect relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emissions. The results indicate that the direct impact of environmental regulation on carbon emissions manifests inverted U-shaped curve. In other words, with intensity of environmental regulation from weak to strong, ＇ green paradox＇ effect will translate into ＇ forced emission-reduction＇ effect. In terms of China＇ s actual situation, current environmental regulation effectively curb carbon emissions and achieve the desired effect. Energy consumption structure significantly promote carbon emissions, regardless of whether it is constrained by environmental regulation. Upgrading industrial structure and stimulating technological innovation, environmental regulation reverses the direction of industrial structure and technological innovation on carbon emissions. Regrettably, environmental regulation results in FDI performance of the ＇ pollution haven＇ effect because of suppressing environmental spillovers effect and capital accumulation of FDI and weakening national enterprise technology absor

关 键 词：绿色悖论 环境规制 碳排放 双重效应 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学]