养老保险对土地流转促进作用的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of Promoting Function of Old-age Insurance toward Farmland Circulation

作　　者：赵光[1] 李放[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第9期118-128,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划"人口老龄化;养老保障与农村土地流转"(编号:CXZZ13_0317);教育部人文社科规划基金项目"快速城市化地区农民社会保障和农地制度协同创新的公共政策选择"(编号:12YJA840023);江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重点项目"城市化进程中农民社会保障与农地制度创新的协同共进研究--基于农民再分化视角"(编号:2011ZDIXM024);南京农业大学人文社会科学重大招标项目"江苏农村社会保障发展报告"(编号:SKZD201206)

摘　　要：基于2011年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)中社区及微观个体两个维度的数据,对养老保险与农村土地流转之间的关系进行了实证分析,研究结果表明,目前农村地区的农地流转率普遍偏低,且仍有部分农村地区未覆盖任何养老保险制度,而实施新农保或老农保以及对65岁以上老人发放补助等养老保障政策措施的社区土地流转比例较高,因此养老保险等政策对社区土地流转比例的提高具有积极的促进作用。微观个体数据表明农村地区土地流转行为并不活跃,发生了土地流出行为与土地流入行为的比重均在10%左右,但农民是否领取到了养老金无论是在土地流出还是土地流入方面,都是有正向的促进作用的。一方面,养老金的收入具有稳定性,一定程度上满足老年农民必要的货币支出需要,对土地的养老保障功能具有替代作用,进而促进土地流转供给的增加;另一方面,有养老金的土地转入者家庭生存的担忧又得到有效缓解,又可以促进其大规模转入土地进行开发,促进了土地流转的有效需求,因此从供给和需求两个方面来看,养老保险对农村土地流转市场的促进都是十分有效的。农民年龄也是影响土地流转的重要因素,但对土地转出或转入的影响方向不尽相同。年龄较大的农民一般缺乏技能,非农就业就会较少,相对于青壮年可能不愿意土地流转,但对于那些年龄很大的农民来说,受到劳动能力的限制,可能愿意流出土地,而不会流入土地扩大土地经营规模。进一步将社区变量和个人特征变量同时纳入到分层模型内分析可以发现,社区是否对65岁以上老人发放补助对个体土地转出、是否有养老金对个体土地转入都具有正向的显著作用,也表明本文模型分析结果是较为稳健的。基于这些结论,本研究的政策含义是很明显的,即建立健全农村养老保险等社会保障制度体系是有效�Based on two dimensions community data and micro individual data in 2011 China Heahh and Retirement l,ongitudinal Study（CHARI,S）, this paper carried out an empirical analysis about the relationship between old-age insurance and farmland circulation. And the result shows that the incidence of farmland circulation is generally very low, and some rural areas donl have any endowment insurance system. But the new rural old-age insurance or old one and the grants for people over the age 65 wouht have a positive effect on scale of conmlunity farmland conversion. So the endowment insurance policy has a positive effect in promoting the community land circulation ratio. The analysis of the micro individual data shows that the proportion of the farmers who had transferrcd outward or inward their farmland is very low, and the proportion is about 10%. But if famers had been drawing pensions, it would have a positive effect on their outward farmland transferring behavior and inward farmland transferring behavior. The pension income has stability and it can replace the old-age security function that land bears itself, and then promote the supply of farmland circulation. On the other hand, the pensions liberate farmland transfer people from survival and retirement worry so that it can promote lamer to transfer land inward in order to achieve scale management of agricultural production and form the effective demand of farmland circulation. So we can see that old-age insurance is a very effective measure of promoting farmland circulation market supply and demand. In addition, the age of farmer is also an important factor of land circulation, but the effect is not the same in farmer＇ s outward farmland transferring behavior and inward farmland transferring behavior. Old farmers may not want to transfer farmland compared with the young aduhs because old farmers generally lacks skills and employment opportunity. But on the other hand, older farmers may want to transfer farmland outward rather than transfbr farmland inward and e

关 键 词：养老保险 土地转出行为 土地转入行为 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]