基于风险分析的仿真可信性控制  

Simulation credibility control based on risk analysis

作　　者：陈永兴[1] 吴晓燕[1] 卜祥伟[1] 唐冬丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学防空反导学院,西安710051

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第9期2411-2416,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2012JM8020)

摘　　要：针对仿真可信性面临的问题,提出了基于风险分析的仿真可信性控制方法.依据面临风险的不同,将仿真可信性控制的实现过程分为仿真结果可信性控制和仿真应用可信性控制两个部分,对其实现原理和关键技术进行了分析,提出了基于影响网的仿真风险分析方法,实现了仿真风险的定量计算,设计了基于敏感分析的风险消减方法,通过对关键失效的修改,实现了仿真可信性的控制和提高.最后给出了一个例子证明所提方法的可行性和有效性.With respect to the problem faced by simulation credibility,a method based on risk analysis is proposed to control the simulation credibility.Simulation credibility control is divided into result credibility control and application credibility control according to different risk.The elements and key technologies are analyzed.A qualitative risk calculation method is proposed based on influence nets.The risk mitigate method is designed based on sensitivity analysis.Simulation credibility can be controlled and improved by maintain these key failures.Finally,an example is given to prove the feasibility and validity of this method.

关 键 词：仿真风险 可信性控制 影响网 敏感分析 VV&A 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]