发达经济体公共债务适度规模争议及其启示  

Appropriate Public Debt Level for Advanced Economies:Disputes and Messages

作　　者：李远芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2014年第5期133-145,7,共13页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"全球经济治理结构变化与我国应对战略研究"(14ZDA081)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：在近年发达经济体公共债务规模达到二战后最高水平的背景下,公共债务适度规模成为学术界与政策研究领域的热点问题。理论上,公共债务规模扩张对经济的影响是正是负依具体情景而定,实证研究中也没有一致的证据支持公共债务规模与后续经济增长无关或者有关。虽然对公共债务规模是否存在经济意义上的适度水平存疑,但仍可从不同角度探讨公共债务规模上升的相伴风险及可持续性问题。当前发达经济体高额公共债务的风险不是出现偿付危机的风险,而是相关的宏观经济和金融市场风险。发达经济体公共债务规模能否缩减,将取决于能否利用"增长率-利率"差值的自动减债效果所创造的时间和空间,实施增长友好和财政友好的结构改革。出于审慎目的设定公共债务率上限对于稳定预期有积极作用,但与此相伴的考核透明度是决定政策可信与否更为重要的因素。本文最后总结了该问题对于中国的政策启示。While the public debt of the advanced economies has risen to the highest level in the Post-War era,the appropriateness of the public debt level has become a hotly debated issue in the academic and policy circles.Theoretically,the economic impact of public debt growth is contingent on scenarios.Empirically,there is no consistent evidence supporting or denying the relationship between the public debt level and subsequent economic growth.Though it is doubtful whether appropriate level of public debt exists in the economic sense,the accompanying risk and sustainability of public debt growth can be well analyzed from different angles.The risks of the high public debt level in advanced economies are not payment crises but macroeconomic and financial market volatility.Reduction of the public debt will depend on whether the advanced economies can implement growth-friendly and fiscal-friendly structural reform by utilizing the room the "growth rate-interest rate" differential creates.Setting public debt limit out of prudential considerations will have a positive bearing on stabilizing expectations,but the transparency of evaluation is more important for policy credibility.Policy suggestions for China are summarized at the end.

关 键 词：公共债务规模 经济增长 政府债务 

分 类 号：F811.5[经济管理—财政学]