G20国家货币控制效应转移研究——基于狭义货币口径的面板平滑转移模型  

On the Transition of Effect of Monetary Control of the G20 Countries——Based on a Model of Panel Smooth Transition in Terms of Micro-currency

作　　者：刘晓葳[1] 朱建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《陕西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第5期167-176,共10页Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD148)

摘　　要：利用中介效应检验及面板平滑机制转移模型等计量工具,以G20成员国1992—2012年经济金融年度数据建立模型,对货币政策控制变量狭义货币的产出、价格效应及其传导机制非线性转移做实证分析,结果显示:货币数量的价格调节效应显著而对产出影响不敏感,货币数量调控通过利率、汇率及信贷等传导渠道发生作用,随着各渠道变量发生变化货币控制效应发生非线性机制转移。以八国集团及十一个重要新兴工业化国家为样本分别建模,发现三种渠道变量作用大小有明显差异,这种异质性由发达国家与发展中国家利率市场化水平、金融市场健全程度、对外开放及国际资本流动水平差异等综合因素所决定。实证结论表明,货币数量的产出效果长期趋于中性,对中国的启示是慎用货币数量型调控影响经济增长。Modeling the 1992-2012 annual economic and financial data of the G20 country by means of mediator effect testing and model of panel smooth transition,an empirical analysis was made of the nonlinear transfer of production,price effect and transmission mechanism of the micro-currency under the variation control of monetary policy. The results show that the price-adjusting effect of currency quantity was prominent but not sensitive in affecting production,that the control of currency quantity made effect by the mediating means,such as interests,exchange rates and loan,and that with changes in variations of different means,nonlinear transfer occurred to the effect of monetary control. Modeling respectively the Group of Eight and the eleven major emerging industrialized countries finds that the size of variations of the three means differs clearly. This heterogeneity is determined by comprehensive elements,including differences in level of interests marketization,degree of improvement of banking market,degree of opening door to the outer world and level of international capital fluid between developed and developing countries. A demonstrated conclusion indicates that the effect of production of currency quantity remains neutral in the long run and that China should be cautious in regulating and controlling economic growth by the size of monetary quantity.

关 键 词：货币政策 狭义货币 传导渠道 非线性机制转移 货币中性 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]