1961—2010年云南省极端干旱的特征分析  

Analysis of Characteristics of Extreme Drought from 1961 to 2010 in Yunnan Province

作　　者：覃顺萍 吴巩胜[2] 李丽[2] 周跃[2] 张宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南财经大学野生动植物管理与生态系统健康研究中心,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《海南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第3期306-311,共6页Journal of Hainan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31100351)

摘　　要：随着全球变暖的进一步加剧,极端天气气候事件发生的频率越来越高,强度越来越大,引起众多国内外学者的高度关注和重视.极端天气气候事件是对人类社会危害最严重的自然灾害之一,对自然生态和社会稳定、经济发展、人民生活等人类生存环境产生了显著的影响,每年全球都因为极端气候灾害造成巨大的经济损失,并且呈现逐年增加的趋势.文章基于云南省1961—2010年0.25°×0.25°的逐日气象格点数据,包括日平均温度、日最高温度、日最低温度以及日降水量,通过STARDEX Diagnostic Extremes Indices Software计算出57个极端气候指数,并选取与干旱有关的6个主要极端指数,运用Mann—Kendall秩次检验方法和Arcgis10.1进行空间制图,分析云南省近50年来极端干旱的空间分布特征和趋势变化.结果表明:云南省近50年来极端干期长度平均值及标准差、最长连续干日数和干日持续的概率的分布均为自滇西北东部向南、自中部向东部和西北西部两端递减;各极端干旱指数与同期日降水量强度和平均气温均呈显著负相关;极端干期长度趋势分析表明,近50年来云南省干期长度平均值大部分地区呈不明显的缩短下降趋势,尤其是滇西北东部地区通过了显著性检验.With the global warming, the frequency of extreme weather events is increasing, which has caught many domestic and foreign scholars＇ attention. Extreme weather events had a significant impact on human living environment such as natural ecosystems, social stability, economic development, people＇s living, etc.. It is one of the worst natural disasters that do harm to human society. Extreme weather disasters would cause huge economic losses in the world each year with an increasing trend year by year. Based on the daily meteorological lattice data of Yunnan province during 1961 and 2010, includ-ing the daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation, STAR-DEX Diagnostic Extremes Indices Software was used to calculate 57 extreme climate index and six main extreme indices re-lated to drought were selected, methods such as Mann Kenddall rank test and Arcgis10.1 space mapping were used to analyze the space distribution features and the trend changes of extreme drought in Yunnan province in recent 50 Years. The results indicated that the pdsav, pdssdv, pxcdd and ppdd in past 50 years descended from the east of northwestern Yunnan tosouth, from the central to the eastern and western ends of the northwest; The extreme drought index showed a significant negative correlation with day rainfall intensity and average temperature; the extreme dry period length trend analysis showedthat in most parts of Yunnan in nearly 50 years pdsav showed unobvious downward trend, especially the east of northwestern Yunnan passed significant test.

关 键 词：极端干旱 云南省 Mann—Kendall检验 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]