中国原油进口成本波动影响因素的识别与量化  

Identification and quantification of the influence factors of China's crude oil-importing costs fluctuation

作　　者：杨玉英[1,2] 孙晓蕾[1] 吴登生[1] 李建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2014年第5期672-679,共8页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71003091;71373009;71133005)

摘　　要：原油是中国一大宗进口商品,其进口成本的大幅波动不仅会带来很大的经济风险还会影响到国际贸易收支平衡.本文尝试采用LMDI指数分解模型从需求因素、价格因素和原油进口来源结构因素三个方面对2001年—2012年原油进口成本波动进行定量分析,试图揭示这三个因素对中国原油进口成本波动的影响规律.研究发现,需求因素是影响进口成本波动的最主要因素,原油进口来源结构变化对进口成本波动影响虽小但呈逐年增加的趋势.中国目前对油价的控制力较小,应着重通过控制国内需求更有效的降低原油进口成本波动.此外,中国未来还可以通过优化石油进口来源结构提高能源安全.The changes of China＇s crude oil-importing costs not only bring great economic risk, but also affect the international balances of trade as it is a large-volume imported commodity. By adopting LMDI index decomposition model, this paper attempts to make a quantitative analysis on the changes of oil-importing costs from three aspects： the demand factor, price factor and the structure of oil-importing sources, and attempts to reveal how these factors influence the fluctuations ofoil imports. This research finds that demand factor are the dominant factors affecting imports fluctuations, and the impact of China＇s crude oil-importing structure on the fluctuations ofoil imports is small, but at a gradually increasing trend. As a result, to reduce the fluctuations of oil-importing costs, China should focus on the control of domestic demand as China has little control over oil prices. Besides, China＇s energy security can be enhanced by optimizing oil-importing structure in the future.

关 键 词：原油进口波动 需求因素 价格因素 结构因素 LMDI模型 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学]