天山北坡三屯河流域树轮重建的146a降水变化  

Variability of Precipitation over the Past 146 Years in the Santun River Basin Recorded by Tree-Ring

作　　者：秦莉[1] 史玉光[2] 喻树龙[1] 袁玉江[1] 张同文[1] 陈峰[1] 范子昂[1] 尚华明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆维吾尔自治区树木年轮生态重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]山东省气象局,山东济南250031

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2014年第5期23-28,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2011003);科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206014);国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC23B01);国家自然科学基金(41271098;41205070)共同资助

摘　　要：通过对新疆天山北坡三屯河流域2个采点的云杉树轮宽度标准化年表与小渠子和大西沟气象站月降水相关普查分析发现,区域森林中下部林缘年表与小渠子气象站上年7月至当年6月的降水呈显著正相关,其相关系数为0.694(p<0.000 1),且具有明确的树木生理学意义。利用区域森林中下部林缘年表序列可较好地重建小渠子气象站146 a来上年7月至当年6月降水量。对天山北坡三屯河流域过去146 a降水变化特征分析表明:天山北坡三屯河流域降水大体经历了6个偏干阶段和6个偏湿阶段,具有2、4、7、14、26 a的变化准周期,1942年和1945年分别是三屯河流域甚至天山山区较大范围内过去146 a的降水最大年份和最小年份,降水的长期变化与天山山区变化趋势有很大的相似性。Single correlation calculation between the standard chronologies of tree-ring width in two sites and precipitation of Xiaoquzi and Daxigou meteorological stations found that the correlations were significant among standard chronologies of tree-ring width and precipitation from July of last year to June of current year in the Santun river basin on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains. Mining Miaoergou mine and Santun river standardization chronologies of tree-ring width for the region received the regional tree-ring standardized chronology in the mid-lower limit of forest. And it has distinct physiological significance with a maximum correlation of 0.694（p〈0.001）.Using the regional tree-ring standardized chronology reconstructed a 146-year precipitation series.It was verified that the reconstructed precipitation series was reliable. Analyzing the 146 years reconstructed precipitation series indicated： there were 6 dry periods below its mean and 6 wet periods above its mean, and there significant change cycles of 2a, 4a, 7a, 14 a and 26 a in the longterm precipitation series. 1942 is maximum precipitation year and 1945 is minimum precipitation year over the past 146 years in Santun river basin even throughout the Tianshan Mountains.

关 键 词：树木年轮 云杉 降水重建 天山北坡 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]