冷静聚焦普京新政下的俄罗斯经济颓势  

Russia's Economic Weakness Under Putin's New Administration

作　　者：程伟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心 [2]辽宁大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2014年第6期58-74,6,共17页International Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"后金融危机时代俄罗斯经济政治转型战略调整研究"(项目编号:10JJDGJW010)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：举世关注的普京新政与俄罗斯经济的增长颓势不期而遇。直观地看,这是俄罗斯经济以往恢复性增长中累积矛盾作用的结果,似乎俄罗斯正在陷入经济困局。深入地看,这既是发生在宏观经济基本稳定下的增长颓势,又是发生在转型拐点上的增长颓势。基于国际经验、历史教训、俄罗斯当下国情等多种因素的考虑,普京团队首先看重守住宏观经济稳定这个底线,在此基础上,启动旨在摆脱过度依赖原料经济发展模式的新一轮经济转型。不难看出,普京新政下的俄罗斯经济颓势,一定程度上折射出来的是发展中的问题,不宜将其视为经济困局,也不大可能是长期的趋势。Russian President Putin s new administration has coincided with the weakening of the Russian economy,which has been in the global spotlight.Apparently,it seems the Russian economy is suffering from setbacks that have been caused by problems accumulated in the economic recovery process.However,if we look at the issue more thoroughly,the weakening has happened while the macroeconomic fundamentals are stable and,at the same time,the Russian economy is at a crucial stage of transition.Based on international experiences,historical lessons and current national conditions,President Putin and his team have prioritized the stabilization of the macroeconomy,which is the bottom line,and,on that basis,kicked off a new round of economic transition aimed at shaking off die development pattern that is highly dependent on raw materials.It is clear that the economic weakening that has appeared as Putin implements his new platform reflects some problems that are inevitable during the process of development and it should not be seen as an economic deadlock or a long-term trend.

关 键 词：普京新政 俄罗斯经济颓势 经济困局 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济]