试析鲁哈尼“重振经济”的路径和制约——兼议哈梅内伊的“抵抗型经济政策”  

An Analysis on Rouhani's Path and Restrictions to Revive the Economy——Also on Ayatollah Khamenei's "Resistance Economy"

作　　者：陆瑾[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2014年第6期127-143,共17页West Asia and Africa

摘　　要：鲁哈尼因承诺解决伊核问题和经济问题当选伊朗总统。为重振经济,其新政府采取外交、经济并举的"双轨政策",并把政策重点向外交倾斜。新政府履职百日,尽管外交努力成效斐然,但伊朗经济形势依然严峻。鲁哈尼的内外政策遭到反对派的批评和攻击,国内政治团结氛围受到严重挑战,民众情绪低落。在此背景下,宗教领袖哈梅内伊宣布了"抵抗型经济总政策",旨在建立一种基于本土文化和资源的新经济模式以战胜各种经济困难。尽管伊朗各级政府部门根据要求为实施该政策制订了具体的行动计划,但能否落实有待于时间的检验。在未来相当长的时间内,伊朗经济的结构性矛盾和美欧制裁仍将是影响伊朗走出经济滞胀的重要制约因素。Rouhani was elected president of Iran for his commitment to solve the Iranian nuclear issue and economic hardships. In order to ＂ revive the economy＂, his new government had adopted an economic and diplomatic double - track policy, while tilting to the foreign policy priorities. A hundred days passed since the new government assumed office, though diplomacy worked brilliantly, the economic situation was still grim. Rouhani＇s domestic and foreign policies are criticized and attacked by the opposition party, the political unity is seriously challenged and the public is depressed. Under this background, Ayatollah Khamenei announced the ＂Resistance Economy＂, which aimed at building a new economic model based on indigenous culture and resources. Although the Iranian government departments at all levels developed specific plans of action for the implementation of this policy, the final results need to be the test of time. For a long time in the future, structural imbalance and Western sanctions will be the main restrictions for Iran to recover from stagflation.

关 键 词：伊朗经济 鲁哈尼 滞胀 “抵抗型经济政策” 

分 类 号：F135.1[经济管理—世界经济]