非传统安全视角下中国粮食贸易安全水平的测度  

Measurement of Chinese Food Trade Safety from the Non-Traditional Security Perspective

作　　者：顾国达[1] 尹靖华[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2014年第6期35-49,共15页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BJY072)

摘　　要：基于非传统安全视角,在综合考虑国内外粮食市场行情、外部冲击因素、内部产业因素和受控可能性的基础上,构建粮食贸易安全水平的评价指标体系,并对我国粮食贸易安全水平进行测度后发现:1992—2011年我国粮食贸易安全状态多为贸易弱态和贸易劣态,总体处于基本安全和基本不安全状态,且口粮和饲料粮的贸易安全状态高于工业用粮;在粮食贸易安全变化趋势上,小麦贸易安全水平有小幅上升,而稻米贸易安全水平波幅减小且略有下降,玉米贸易安全水平围绕0值上下波动,大豆贸易安全水平呈"阶梯式"下降;我国粮食贸易安全的主要影响因素依次是产业竞争力、国内市场行情、外部冲击因素、产业政策、受控可能性和国际市场行情。As economic globalization deepens and food trade increases, it＇s crucial to measure and evaluate China＇s food trade security from the non-traditional security perspective. From a single country＇s perspective, food trade security means a country can take effective measures to resist the impacts of external factors, such as sharp price fluctuations, grain embargo, international political and economical crisis, and obtain the needed food through trade to fill domestic food gap. In view of multiple countries, food trade safety is the superior co-existence between food trade subjects. Various food trade subjects gain sustainable development through mutual reciprocity and benefits by food trade. Principal component analysis （PCA） was taken to measure China＇s food trade security level. The conclusion is： First, from 1992 to 2011 the overall security situation of China＇s food trade ismostly in the weakening and degradation survival state, involved between basic safety and basic insecurity, and wheat, rice and corn trade have higher security state than soybean. Second, wheat trade security has a small rise, the rice trade security has fallen slightly, corn trade security fluctuates around zero, and soybean trade security step down. Third, the main influences on China＇s grain trade security, in sequence of importance, include the competitiveness of the industry, the domestic market, the external impact factors, industrial policy, the possibility of being controlled and the international market. This article may have three innovations. （1） The research contents focus on China＇s grain trade security, which the existing research has not been carried out in depth. （2） The measurement thought marks a step in advance of traditional security concept, deeming the superior co-existence between China and her food trade partners as trade safety, extending trade safety＇s boundary to multilateral security constructions, emphasizing on nationally, regionally and globally trade policy coordination and trad

关 键 词：非传统安全 粮食贸易安全 指标体系 粮食安全 安全状态 变化趋势 影响因素 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F752F224