基于期权定价理论的草原碳汇价值评估——以内蒙古四子王旗为例  

Evaluation of grassland carbon sink of Siziwang Banner,Inner Mongolia based on the theory of option pricing

作　　者：闫晔[1] 修长柏[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院,呼和浩特010019

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第11期31-36,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：内蒙古突泉县农村脱贫与综合发展项目(20100031 E/BftW-Co 222/2010)资助

摘　　要：草原碳汇价值的合理评估对于促进碳汇市场交易具有重要作用。采用B1ack-Scholes期权定价法估算2004-2012年内蒙古四子王旗草原碳汇价值,并与传统净现值(NPV)评估法进行对比分析。研究结果表明:期权定价法以实际价值变动的概率和无风险收益率来衡量风险变化,既考虑资金的时间价值,又具有决策的柔性,使评估结果更贴近实际价值,运用期权定价理论核算草原碳汇价值相对于传统的价值评估方法更为合理,估算得到草原碳汇价值为33942.63万元。Reasonable assessment of the grassland carbon sink value plays an important role in promoting carbon market transactions. Black- Scholes option pricing method was used to estimate the grassland carbon sink value in Siziwang Banner of Inner Mongolia from 2004 to 2012,and compared with the traditional net present value（ NPV） evaluation method. The research results show that the option pricing method is to measuring risk in the probability of real value changes and risk- free rate,both considering the time value of capital and flexible decision- making,and the evaluation result is more close to the actual value. So,using the option pricing theory to account grassland carbon sink value is more reasonable than the traditional evaluation method,and the grassland carbon sink value is 339. 4263 million Yuan.

关 键 词：草原碳汇 B-S期权定价 净现值法(NPV) 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]