新立城水库富营养化及影响因子分析  

Assessment and Analysis of Factors of Eutrophication in Xinlicheng Reservoir

作　　者：赵琳琳[1] 肖长来[1] 王雅男[1] 李永庆[1] 梁秀娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学环境与资源学院,吉林长春130026

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2014年第10期40-42,45,共4页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41072171);吉林省科技厅重点攻关项目(20100452);国家潜在油气资源产学研用合作创新研究项目(20100331)专题(OSR01-7)

摘　　要：水体富营养化是静态水体水质恶化的重要表现之一,影响因子的分析为水体富营养化治理提供依据。以新立城水库2004-2011年间降水、水温、pH、营养盐等数据为依据,采用综合营养状态指数法评价水库营养化水平;采用主成分分析及回归统计法,提取主成分并建立回归方程,探讨富营养化与影响因子之间的关系。结果表明,2004-2011年,水质呈现一个先恶化再好转的过程;三个主成分F1、F2、F3:F1由降水量、水温来水量决定,F2由SD和pH决定,F3由氮磷营养盐决定;并建立三变量的回归方程:TLI=48.777+1.041 F1+1.411 F2+2.944 F3,统计量F相伴概率小于显著性水平P<0.01,通过F检验,方程预测结果的平均相对误差为6.53%,预测结果与实际拟合程度较好,认为回归方程效果比较显著。Analysis of impact factors can provide basis for governing eutrophication, which is one of the important performance of wa- ter quality deterioration. In this study, the comprehensive nutrition state index method was adopted to evaluate nutrition level of Xin licheng reservoir, the principal component analysis method and regression statistical method were used to extract principal compo- nents and establish regression model for discussing relationship between eutrophication and impact factors. The results showed that the water quality deteriorated first and then better in 2004 to 2011. The first principal component F1 was mainly decided by precipita tion, temperature and inflow; the second principal component F2 was mainly decided by SD and pH; the third principal component F3 was mainly decided by nutritive salt such as nitrogen and phosphorus. The regression equation of the three variables was estab- lished as TLI ：48. 777＋1. 041 F1 ＋1. 411 F2 ＋2. 944 F3, the statistic F concomitant probability was less than significance level. The average relative error of predicted results was 6.53%, which indicated that the predicted result was accorded with the actuality and the effect was significant.

关 键 词：新立城 富营养化 主成分 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]