情绪能预测股市吗?  

Can Mood Predict Stock Market ?

作　　者：赖凯声[1] 陈浩[1] 乐国安[1] 董颖红[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院社会心理学系,天津300071 [2]鲁东大学教育科学学院心理系,烟台264011

出　　处：《心理科学进展》2014年第11期1770-1781,共12页Advances in Psychological Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目课题(2010CB731404);国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD218;14ZDA063);国家社会科学基金重点项目(12ASH006);天津市教委社会科学重大资助项目(2012ZD);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC190004;13YJC190025)

摘　　要：人类的非理性被经济学家Keynes视为是造成经济波动的主要原因,而情绪是非理性行为的背后推动力之一。那么情绪是否与股票市场波动有关,甚至预测股市波动?首先,笔者从心理和神经生理角度出发,尝试解释决策主体情绪、社会情绪是如何影响个体金融决策的。其次,笔者将情绪与股市关系研究大致划分为投资者情绪与社会情绪研究。投资者情绪研究主要通过主观调查和客观市场指标构建情绪指标;而近年来的社会情绪研究,尤其是基于互联网平台的社会情绪研究,为情绪与股市关系研究注入了新的活力。关于情绪与股市的关系问题远未定论,情绪影响股市的内在机制也有待未来研究继续深化。而互联网大数据资源和信息技术在情绪与股市关系这一研究领域中,将扮演越来越重要的角色。Human irrationality is seen as the main reason for economic fluctuations by economist Keynes, while mood is one of the key factors leading to irrational behavior. This paper thus aims to examine whether mood can correlate to, even predict stock market fluctuations. Firstly, authors try to explain how the mood of decision-makers and social mood influence financial decision-making by the views of psychology and physiology. Secondly, authors broadly divided the studies on the relationship between mood and stock market from the perspectives of investors’ moods and social mood. Studies from the perspective of investors’ mood mainly construct mood indicators through subjective surveys and objective market indicators. In recent years, however, the social mood studies, especially those based on the Internet and information technology, infuse vigor into the study on the relationship between mood and stock market. The relationship between mood and stock market is far from conclusive, and the internal mechanisms on how mood influences stock market should be explored further. What’s more, information technology and the Internet can play a more and more significant role in the future studies on exploring the relationship between mood and stock market.

关 键 词：情绪 股票市场 行为金融 社会情绪 互联网 行为金融信息学 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学]