2008—2012年北京市丰台区居民脑血管病死亡特征分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of death caused by cerebrovascular disease in Fengtai District of Beijing from 2008-2012

作　　者：谢俊卿[1] 信振江[1] 杜忠仁[1] 白俊梅[1] 赵建忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市丰台区疾病预防控制中心,100071

出　　处：《职业与健康》2014年第20期2908-2911,共4页Occupation and Health

基　　金：北京市科委项目(项目编号:Z111107056811042);北京市丰台区科技项目(项目编号:201210)

摘　　要：目的了解2008—2012年北京市丰台区居民脑血管病的死亡特征,包括脑血管病死亡年份、性别、年龄、季节分布情况,不同类型的脑血管病的死亡构成情况。建立脑血管病的预测模型,预测2013年丰台区居民脑血管病的死亡情况,为公共卫生工作提供基础依据。方法采用SAS 9.2统计软件对丰台区居民2008—2012年因脑血管病死亡的资料进行描述性分析、poisson回归分析、卡方检验,并对脑血管病的死亡趋势进行预测。结果 2008—2012年丰台区居民因脑血管病死亡7000例,经多因素分析,不同年份间脑血管病的死亡率差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。男性脑血管病的死亡率高于女性,老年组和中年组的脑血管病的死亡率均高于青年组,冬季脑血管病的死亡率高于春季(均P<0.01)。不同性别脑血管病死亡类型分布差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),不同年份、季节、年龄组的脑血管病死亡类型分布差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。根据所健模型估计2013年该区脑血管病死亡率为138.05/10万。结论 2012年丰台区居民脑血管病死亡率较高,防控压力仍然很大。男性脑血管病死亡率均高于女性,老年人是脑血管病的高发人群,冬季是脑血管病的高发季节。脑血管后遗症、脑梗死、脑出血是丰台区居民脑血管病的主要致死类型。研究建立的脑血管病预测模型能很好地拟合脑血管病的时间变化趋势。[Objective]To understand the characteristics of death caused by cerebrovascular disease in Fengtai District from2008-2012,including the distribution of year,gender,age,season of death cases from cerebrovascular disease,as well as the composition of different types of cerebrovascular disease deaths,establish the prediction model to predict the death caused by cerebrovascular disease in Fengtai District in 2013,and provide the basis for public health work.[Methods]By SAS 9. 2 software,the data of death caused by cerebrovascular disease in Fengtai District from 2008-2012 were investigated by the descriptive analysis,poisson regression and chi-square test. The tendency of death caused by cerebrovascular disease was predicted. [Results]There were7 000 death cases from cerebrovascular disease in Fengtai District from 2008-2012,and the multiple factor analysis showed that there was no significant difference in mortality of cerebrovascular disease among different years（ P〉0. 05）. The mortality of cerebrovascular disease in males was higher than that in females,the mortality of cerebrovascular disease in elderly group and middleage group was higher than that in the young group,and the mortality of cerebrovascular disease in winter was higher than that in spring（ all P〈0. 01）. There was no significant difference in death distribution of different types of cerebrovascular disease between males and females（ P〉0. 05）. The differences in death distribution of different types of cerebrovascular disease were significant among different year,season,and age groups（ P〈0. 05）. Based on the prediction model,it was predicted that the mortality of cerebrovascular disease was 138. 05 /lakh in Fengtai District in 2013.[Conclusion]The mortality of cerebrovascular disease is higher in Fengtai District in 2012,which indicates there is greater pressure on prevention and control work. The mortality of cerebrovascular disease in males is higher than that in females,the elderly is the high-risk group of cerebrovascular d

关 键 词：脑血管病 死亡率 poisson回归模型 脑出血 脑梗死 脑血管病后遗症 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]