养老金红利:理论与来自中国的实证  

Pension Dividend:Theory and Evidence from China

作　　者：殷宝明[1] 刘昌平[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国软科学》2014年第10期59-70,共12页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"人口老龄化背景下中国养老金财政支出规模与影响因素分析"(项目编号:71273198);教育部博士学术新人奖资助项目(5052012115001)联合资助

摘　　要："乡—城"人口迁移会对城镇现收现付制公共养老金制度内现存群体和制度的财务可持续性产生重要影响。论文运用迭代模型证明了农村迁移劳动力能够提高城镇现收现付制养老金制度内现存群体的养老金水平和生命周期内的消费总效用,从理论上界定了养老金红利和其存在的条件。基于对存在条件的判断和规模测度的实证分析,研究结论显示养老金红利存在于中国并有助于城镇基本养老保险制度度过财务不可持续性危机。The immigrations from the rural to the urban have significant impacts on the current cohorts in the pay-as- you-go public pension system in the city and its financial sustainability. This paper using OLG model proves that the pension level as well as gross consumption utility of the cohorts are both improved by the immigrations, further defines the pension dividend theoretically and its existing conditions. The empirical analysis shows the existence of the pension dividend in China and its important role helping the Urban Basic Old-age Insurance （UBOI） get through the financial unsustainable crisis, based on the judgment of the existing conditions and the calculation of the scale.

关 键 词：养老金红利 现收现付制 “乡-城”人口迁移 中国 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]