WRF模式对福建沿海风电场风速预测的效果分析  

Effect analysis of WRF on wind speed prediction at the coast wind power station of Fujian province

作　　者：杨光焰 吴息[2] 周海[3] 

机构地区：[1]延庆县气象局,北京延庆102100 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点试验室,南京210044 [3]国网电力科学研究院清洁能源发电研究所,南京210003

出　　处：《气象科学》2014年第5期530-535,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省科技支撑计划项目(E2010200);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206026);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：在WRF模式中选取不同的边界层、近地面层以及陆面过程参数化方案，设计了4种不同物理过程参数化方案，组合模拟福建沿海某测风塔站2010年1月1-11日和7月1-11日的逐时风速，将数值模拟结果和同期测风塔观测数据进行对比，以寻求最佳参数化方案。经分析比较，采用MYJ边界层方案，Monin-Obukhov近地面层方案以及Noah陆面过程方案的方案2模拟效果最好。使用该方案对2010年1月和7月的风速进行模拟，按不同风速级别分别对数值模拟结果进行对比分析，结果表明：方案2对6-15m／s风速模拟的平均相对误差在20％左右，能够满足风电预测的精度需求；而对0-6m／s风速模拟的误差相对较大，这可能是由于模式地形分辨率不够精细以及风塔所处海陆交界处的特殊位置，使低风速容易受地面扰动以及海陆气流影响所致。In this paper, in order to obtain the most reasonable parameterization scheme, four differ- ent physical parameterization schemes were designed with different boundary, surface layer and land layer in WRF numerical to simulate the hourly wind speed during January 1-11 July 1-11, 2010, and then the simulation was compared with the observation. The results show that the scheme 2 using MYJ bounda- ry layer scheme, Monin-Obukhov surface layer scheme and Noah land-surface scheme provided the best simulation. According to different wind speed levels, the comparison of wind speeds simulated by scheme 2 with the observation during January and July, 2010 shows that, in the case of wind speed 6-15 m/s, the average relative error of simulation amounts to less than 20%, meeting the precision demand of wind power prediction, while for wind speed at 0-6 m/s, the error goes up because the lack of accurate topo- graphic resolution of model and the special location of the wind tower made the low wind speed easily af- fected by the land disturbance and the land-sea airflow.

关 键 词：风电场 风速预测 WRF模式 物理过程参数化 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]