复杂网络视角下的货币政策多目标体系研究  

Research on the Multi-target System of Monetary Policy Based on Complex Network View

作　　者：刘超[1] 吴明文[1] 马玉洁[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250000 [2]山东英才学院经济管理学院,山东济南250000

出　　处：《经济与管理》2014年第6期38-44,共7页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61273230);2012年度教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-12-1027);山东省"金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新中心"首席科学家项目暨山东省社科规划重大委托课题(14AWTJ01-4)

摘　　要：货币政策是各国进行宏观经济调控的重要手段之一。深入研究货币政策多目标之间的相互作用,对于正确理解货币政策的作用机制,从而使货币政策更好地发挥经济调控作用具有重大意义。运用复杂网络的系统科学方法,选用我国1993—2012年经济金融数据,对我国货币政策多目标之间的作用机制进行实证研究。结果表明:我国货币政策多目标体系具有明显的小世界特征;当前经济形势下,利率传导机制将扮演越来越重要的角色,同时,应继续坚持以控制通货膨胀作为我国货币政策调控的首要目标。Monetary policy is one of the most important methods which is used in the macroeconomic regulation and control, and plays a vital part in the operation of the national economy. Intensive study to the objects of monetary policy has a great significance for understanding correctly the mode of action of it, leading to a better contribution to the economic adjustment. We use the system science method of complex networks, select the financial statistics from 1993 to 2012, and base on Grey Relational Degree analysis of the multi-objective so that we can construct a corresponding monetary policy target system network and make an empirical study for the mode of action among the multi-objects. The results indicate that monetary policy target system in our country has the obvious little-world feature; according to the contemporary economical situation, rate transmission mechanism will play a more and more important role. Meanwhile, we should insist that inflation be the chief aim of the monetary policy in our country.

关 键 词：货币政策 有效性 传导机制 复杂网络 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]