中国西部地区环境承载力多情景模拟分析  

Multiply Scenario Simulations of Environmental Carrying Capacity in the Western Region of China

作　　者：宁佳[1,2] 刘纪远[1] 邵全琴[1] 樊江文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第11期136-146,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"国家尺度生态系统监测与评估技术集成应用系统"(编号:2013BAC03B04)

摘　　要：随着西部大开发战略的实施,受气候变化和人类活动影响,西部地区生态环境急剧恶化,生态环境承载能力不断降低,制约了经济社会的可持续发展。对中国西部地区环境承载力进行研究有利于西部地区可持续发展,可为西部地区今后发展提供一定的科学依据。本文以全国各省(市、自治区)2010年的GDP数据和污染物排放数据,以及国家"十二五"污染物排放总量控制数据为基础,选取了大气环境中的二氧化硫排放量和氮氧化物排放量,水环境中的化学需氧量排放量和氨氮排放量为指标,对西部地区不同省市的环境承载力进行评价,并设定了四种不同的排放水平情景,在不同情景下核定了西部各省市的GDP潜在增长率。通过分析,西部地区的环境承载力在经济社会可持续发展基础上可分为三类:一类省市包括重庆、陕西、四川三省市,该区环境承载力接近超载,需按2010年东部较为发达地区的污染物排放水平排放才可支持其经济高速发展,达到其规划的GDP增长率;二类省市包括西藏、贵州、云南、内蒙古、广西等五省市,环境承载力有一定空间,能够支持该区到"十二五"、"十三五"的经济发展目标;三类省市包括新疆、青海、甘肃、宁夏等四省市,环境承载力空间较大,能够支持该区较高的GDP发展速率。针对不同省市,在今后的发展过程中,四川、重庆、陕西三省市应以东部先进省市污染物排放水平或发达国家污染物排放水平为目标调整产业结构,提高节能减排技术,降低污染物排放量,提高污染物处理水平,在今后承接各类产业时,提高环境污染物排放要求。广西、云南、西藏、贵州、内蒙古五省市在今后发展中,应以全国平均或东部平均污染物排放水平为目标,适当降低污染物排放水平,在满足国家对各省份环境要求下,稳步进行经济发展。新疆、青海、甘肃和宁夏四省市由于目�With the implementation of the western development strategy,due to climate change and human activities,the ecological environment deteriorated sharply in the western region of China,and the environmental carrying capacity continue reducing,which restrict the sustainable development of economy and society.The research of environmental carrying capacity of western China is beneficial to the sustainable development of the western region,and provides some scientific basis for the future development as well.In this paper,we took the GDP data and pollutant emissions data in ＂ The Twelfth Five Year Guideline＂ of the provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） in 2010,as well as national total pollutant emission control data as the basin data.With sulfur dioxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emissions in the atmosphere,ammonia emissions of COD emissions in water as the indicator,we evaluate environmental carrying capacity in different provinces of the western region,and approved potential GDP growth under different emissions scenarios which we set four different emissions levels in the western provinces.We found that,on the basis of sustainable economic and social development environmental carrying capacity in the western region can be divided into three categories.Zones grouped Ⅰ includes three provinces,that are Chongqing,Shaanxi,Sichuan,and environmental carrying capacity of those cities are close to overloading,which should take the emission levels of more developed eastern regions in 2010 as the goal in order to support high-speed economic development and make the GDP growth reach its planning.Zones grouped Ⅱ includes five provinces,that are Tibet,Guizhou,Yunnan,Inner Mongolia,and Guangxi,and environmental carrying capacity of those cities have a certain space to support develop,which can support the district provinces to reach ＂The Twelfth Five Year Guideline＂ and ＂The Thirteen Five Year Guideline＂ economic development goals.Zones grouped Ⅲ includes four provinces,which are Xinjiang,Qingh

关 键 词：环境承载力 多情景模拟 大气环境 水环境 西部地区 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]