基于投入产出关联的中国产业结构演化特征分析  

Evolution of China's Industrial Structure Based on Output-Input Association

作　　者：孙赵勇[1,2] 任保平[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [2]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2014年第12期56-61,共6页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71203178);教育部哲学社会科学发展报告<中国经济增长质量报告>项目的成果(13JBGP014);陕西知识产权战略研究课题(ZL2014-16);陕西教育厅课题(13JK0146)

摘　　要：基于图论最大权重生成树原理的投入产出定性分析和网络关系动态演化模型可以分别从比较静态和动态两个角度刻画产业结构演化的特点。本文基于1995年和2010年中国产业结构基础树,比较静态分析中国产业结构变化特点;并采用主体调整网络演化模型,估计这15年间中国产业结构网络的动态演化特征。研究结果表明,中国关键生产部门没有发生变化,农林牧渔和采矿业、化学工业在产业体系中仍居于关键地位;中国产业结构得以改善,产业链条延长,部门关联度加深,产业波及源对相关产业的波及效果明显增强。The qualitative analysis of the input-output and the dynamic evolution characteristics of the network model can describe the evolution characteristics of industrial structure based on graph theory from the perspective of comparative static and dynamic characteristics respectively. Based on China＇s industrial structure-based tree in 1995 and 2010, the paper analyzed the changing characteristics of China＇s industrial structure and estimated the dynamic evolution of China＇s industrial structure of the network in 15 years based on actor- oriented network evolution model. The result shows that although China＇s economy has made great achievements, no change happened in the key productive sectors. And agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and mining industry, and the chemical industry still lie in key position in the industrial system; Chinese industrial structure has been improved, industrial chain has been extended, department correlation has been deepened, and ripple effect of industry sources has effected related industries significantly.

关 键 词：产业结构 投入产出模型 技术需求 

分 类 号：F402[经济管理—产业经济]