电力产业链节能减排政策模拟的经济系统动力学模型  

Economic System Dynamics Model for Policy Simulation of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Power Industry Chain

作　　者：于超[1] 何璞玉 

机构地区：[1]电力规划设计总院技术经济部,北京100120

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第5期5-12,共8页Journal of North China Electric Power University(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：本文运用经济系统动力学模型模拟电力产业链节能减排的政策效果,通过对2010-2030年我国电力节能减排效果的预测分析和仿真模拟,发现电力强度、用户电价、煤耗率和清洁能源发电比例是影响电力产业节能减排的四个重要因素。据此,可以有针对性地推进电力需求侧管理、引导客户科学合理用电,提高锅炉效率、降低发电煤耗率,调整电源结构、提高清洁能源发电比例等,既可节约煤炭等一次能源消耗量,又可以减少温室气体排放。In this paper, the economic system dynamics model is established to simulate policy effects of energy saving and emission reduction in power industry chain. Forecast analysis and simulation results of 2010--2030 years showed that electricity strength, user price, coal consumption rate and the proportion of clean energy power generation were the four important influenceing factors of energy saving and emission reduction in power industry. Accordingly, it can be targeted to promote demand side management and guide customers to use electricity in scientific and rational ways, improve boiler efficiency and reduce coal consumption rate, adjust the power structure and improve the proportion of clean energy generation, which can both save coal consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

关 键 词：电力产业链 节能减排 经济 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]