美联储进入和退出量化宽松的节奏与效应——兼论中国外汇储备的投资策略  

Sequences and Effects of Fed's Entrance and Exit of Quantitative Easing and A Discussion on the Investment Strategy of China's FX Reserve

作　　者：王永中[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治所

出　　处：《金融评论》2014年第3期13-29,124,共17页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"美国主权债务可持续性与中国外汇储备管理研究"(项目批准号:11CGJ011)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文深入分析了美联储量化宽松政策进入与退出的步骤和次序,系统概括了量化宽松影响美国债券收益率的机制,全面评估了量化宽松退出影响美元资产和中国外汇储备资产的渠道,提出了中国外汇储备资产多元化的政策建议。其量化宽松退出对中国外汇储备资产安全产生正负双重效应,负向冲击体现为中国持有的长期美国债券价格因收益率上升而下跌,正面效应表现为美元升值与美国股票和不动产的潜在上涨动力增强。未来一段时间,中国外汇储备资产多元化的重点,不是削减美元资产比例,而是调整美元资产结构,减持剩余存续期较长的美国国债,适当增持美国的较短期国债、股票、企业债券和不动产。The paper analyzes the sequences and orders of Fed's ins and outs of quantitative easing(hereafter QE) in depth, systematically summarizes the impacting mechanisms of QE entrance on the yields of US treasury securities, com-prehensively evaluates the impacting sources of QE exit on US dollar assets and China 's FX reserve, and puts forward suggestions on the diversification of China's FX reserve. QE exit will produce dual effects on China's FX reserve, and the negative shock is that the prices of US long-term treasury securities that China has held will decline due to the rise of their yields, while the positive effect represents increased rising pressure in US stock and real estate assets and the appreciation of US dollar. The focus of the diversification of China 's foreign reserve is not to reduce the share of US dollar assets but adjust the structure of its dollar assets in the near future, by reducing hold of longer remaining maturity US treasury bonds, and moderately increasing investment of shorter term treasury bonds, stocks, private bonds, and real es-tates in USA.

关 键 词：量化宽松 外汇储备 

分 类 号：F837.12[经济管理—金融学] F832.6