论中国-俄罗斯FTA的经济基础与路径选择——基于“自然贸易伙伴假说”的分析  

On the Economic Foundation and Path Selection of China-Russia FTA——an Analysis Based on the "Natural Trading Partner Hypothesis"

作　　者：余振[1] 周波[2] 邱珊[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学亚太与新兴经济体研究中心 [2]中共中央党校 [3]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中国社会科学院研究生院学报》2014年第6期137-144,共8页Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大攻关项目"后金融危机时代中国参与全球经济再平衡的战略与路径研究"(11&ZD008);国家社科基金项目"中国-东盟自由贸易区中的产业集聚与区域协调发展研究"(10CGJ017);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地研究项目"中国参与东盟经济一体化问题研究"的阶段性研究成果(13CEDR0002)

摘　　要：中国和俄罗斯地理位置临近,经济贸易关系密切,且贸易互补性较强,根据"自然贸易伙伴假说",中俄FTA会产生较大的贸易创造效应和较少的贸易转移效应。中国与俄罗斯需要从深化两国全面战略协作伙伴关系的高度把握建设双边FTA的战略意义,并在建立各层次磋商和协调制度的基础上,积极推进中俄能源共同体建设,充分发挥民间力量的作用,先行签署双边投资协定,以推动中俄FTA的成立与建设。Besides geographical proximity, there is strongly close and complementary trade relationship between China and Russia. According to natural trading partner hypothesis, China-Russia FTA will bring lots of trade creation effect and much less trade diversion effect. As for China and Russia, it is necessary to promote the negotiation and signature of the FTA in order to deepen the mutual comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. Both of them need to cooperate with each other to establish the mechanism of consultation and coordination at kinds of levels as well as the bilateral investment treaty. All of those should ensure that China-Russia FTA can be established as soon as possible.

关 键 词：中国 俄罗斯 自然贸易伙伴 FTA 路径选择 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F755.12[经济管理—产业经济]