城镇化背景下我国商业地产的发展——一个灰色关联分析视角  

The Development of Commercial Real Estate in China in the Context of Urbanization: from a perspective of Gray Correlation Analysis

作　　者：张生玲[1] 白晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院,北京海淀100875

出　　处：《中国延安干部学院学报》2014年第5期120-125,共6页Journal of China Executive Leadership Academy Yan’an

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助:"基于最优消费路径视角下的中国能源安全研究"(编号2012WZD08)阶段性成果

摘　　要：新型城镇化建设是中国经济社会发展的强力引擎,商业地产是城镇化发展中必不可少的一环。本文从宏观经济、人口状况、批发零售业、居民购买力和城市建设五个方面,选取20个指标,利用灰色关联分析方法,对影响我国商业地产发展的因子进行识别,揭示影响商业地产发展的主导因子,为商业地产的科学、健康发展提供依据。研究结果表明,商业地产销售额、商业地产开发投资额与批发零售业销售额的关联度最强;相对于商业地产销售额,商业地产开发投资额和广义货币供应量的关联度更高;商业地产销售额、开发投资额与不同影响因子的关联强弱程度大致相同。提出丰富商业地产业态、加强金融引导、完成城市配套资源规划等政策建议。The new type of urbanization is a powerful engine for the social and economic development in China while commercial real estate is an indispensible link for the development of urbanization. Applying the tool of gray correlation analysis, this paper selects twenty indicators in five aspects such as macro economy, demography, wholesale and retail sector, purchasing power of residents, and urban construction to identify the impact factors for commercial real estate development, to reveal leading impact factors on commercial real estate development, and to provide basis for the scientific and healthy development of commercial real estate. The research results indicate that： the sales and investments of commercial real estates are most significantly correlated with wholesale and re- tails; in comparison to sales of commercial real estate, investments for commercial real estate correlate more with the broad money supply; the degrees of correlation with various impact factors are largely similar for sales and in- vestments of commercial real estate. The paper raises policy proposals such as enriching the sector ecology for corn- mercial real estate, strengthening financial steering, and completing urban planning for auxiliary resources.

关 键 词：城镇化 商业地产 影响因子 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]