基于改进自适应灰色模型的网络安全态势预测  

Network Security Situation Prediction Based on Improved Adaptive Grey Model

作　　者：陈雷[1] 司志刚[1] 鹤荣育 周飞 

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学密码工程学院,郑州450001 [2]河南省产品质量监督检查院,郑州450004

出　　处：《计算机科学》2014年第B11期259-262,共4页Computer Science

摘　　要：对网络安全态势的研究是网络安全领域的热门话题。现在的研究更多关注的是评估当前态势,而对未来态势的预测讨论较少。为实现对未来网络安全态势的准确预测,改进了现有的自适应灰色分析模型。同时,为提高预测精度,针对传统分析模型的不足,提出了自适应灰色参数和等维灰色填充方法。实验结果表明,这个模型是有效的。Network security situation is a hot research topic in the field of network security.The now-existing research is more concerned about the assessment of the current situation,but has little discussion about the future trend predictions.An improved grey Verhulst model was put forward to predict network security situation accurately in the future.Aiming at the shortages in the prediction based on traditional Verhulst model,the adaptive grey parameters and equaldimensions grey filling methods were proposed to improve the precision.The results show that the model is valid.

关 键 词：态势感知 态势预测 灰色模型 灰色参数 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]