平潭近岸海域浮子漂移轨迹及其数值模拟  

Buoy drift trajectory and numerical simulation in Pingtan coastal waters

作　　者：郭民权 曾银东[1,2] 李雪丁 任在常 张春桂[3] 

机构地区：[1]福建省海洋预报台,福建福州350003 [2]中国海洋大学海洋环境学院,山东青岛266071 [3]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350001

出　　处：《应用海洋学学报》2014年第4期449-454,共6页Journal of Applied Oceanography

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2011J01260);福建省科技计划重点资助项目(2011Y0009);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2013BAB04B00)

摘　　要：平潭近岸海域岸线曲折,周边岛礁众多,海底地形复杂,是福建省海难事故的高发区.本研究建立了平潭近岸海域海上目标物漂移轨迹的预测系统,该系统通过风场和流场的数值模型获取海面动力环境信息,采用拉格朗日算法实现对海上目标物漂移轨迹的预测追踪.其中海流模型采用ROMS(regional ocean modeling system)模型构建,模型水平方向上最高分辨率为100m,垂向上分为16层,并考虑干湿边界,以体现复杂海岸线和水深地形.通过验证分析,潮位、流速和流向的模拟平均绝对误差分别为0.20 m、0.12 m/s和26°.通过平潭近岸2个浮子实验,结果表明,浮子漂移过程中受潮流和局地地形的影响明显,对漂移模型在平潭近岸海域的适用性进行初步验证,浮子模拟轨迹与实际漂移过程基本吻合,模拟时段内最大偏差距离为2.8km,系统可以为平潭近岸海域海上突发事故应急决策提供参考.Pingtan coast in Fujian Province is an accident-prone area due to its irregular coastline,serried islets and complex topography.This paper develops a trajectory forecast system for accidental drifts.The target is tracked with Lagrange method under given ocean conditions which are obtained via atmosphere and ocean numerical models.The ocean model used here is regional ocean modelling system（ROMS） with wet-dry mode.The horizontal spatial resolution is 100 meters and vertical resolution is 16 layers,which is fine enough to resolve the complex topography.Validation analysis shows that,the model＇s mean absolute errors for tide elevation,flow velocity and flow direction are 0.20 m,0.12 m/s and 26 degrees,respectively.Two floats were released in seawater 3 km offshore to further verify model＇s applicability in Pingtan waters.The analysis of float trajectories and velocities show that drifts are mainly affected by the tide and the local terrain.The simulation of float trajectories are consistent with the observation on a maximum spatial deviation of 2.8 km.The trajectory forecast system is proved to be reliable in predicting path information of drifts in Pingtan coastal waters.

关 键 词：物理海洋学 ROMS模型 漂移模型 浮子漂移实验 数值模拟 平潭近岸海域 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]