东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究  

A Risk Assessment System of the Main Meteorological Disasters for Maize in Northeast China

作　　者：高晓容 王春乙[2] 张继权[3] 温煦 

机构地区：[1]北京市通州区气象局,北京101100 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院,长春130024

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2014年第21期4257-4268,共12页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2011BAD32B00);国家自然科学基金(41071326)

摘　　要：【目的】农业生产过程中经常面临着一种以上气象灾害的威胁。目前,农业气象灾害风险评估普遍是以单一灾种对承灾体的影响为研究对象,无法反映真实气象条件下农业生产面临的综合风险;作物在不同发育时期或发育阶段遭受气象灾害对最终产量的影响有所不同。本文以东北地区玉米为例,研究基于作物不同发育阶段多种气象灾害风险评价方法与技术体系。【方法】将东北玉米生育期划分为播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄、抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟4个发育阶段,把冷害、干旱、涝害作为3种主要气象灾害,利用玉米发育期、气象、土壤、作物面积和产量等多元资料,根据自然灾害风险理论和农业气象灾害风险形成机制,以一定区域自然灾害风险由自然灾害危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及人类防灾减灾能力4个因素综合作用的"自然灾害风险四要素说"为理论依据,在全面分析东北玉米发育阶段冷害、干旱、涝害的孕灾环境和致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性、人类防灾减灾能力四要素的基础上,从风险四要素的内涵出发选取风险评价指标。采用孕灾环境多指标法,从气象、作物、自然地理等方面选取指标全面反映发育阶段主要气象灾害的危险性;从承灾体暴露性、脆弱性的内涵出发选取评估指标;鉴于防灾减灾能力比较滞后的研究现状,选用产量变异系数综合反映防灾减灾能力,形成了比较完备的发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评价指标体系。由于农业气象灾害成因的多要素性、复杂性,影响要素之间的模糊性和不确定性,利用层次分析法确定发育阶段主要气象灾害风险四要素及危险性指标的权重。利用自然灾害风险指数法构建发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评估模型。利用加权综合评分法构建发育阶段主要气象灾害危险性评价模型,发育阶段3种主�[Objective] Agricultural production is often threatened by several meteorological disasters. Presently, the risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters often focuses on the influence of single meteorological disaster on disaster-affected body, not exactly reflecting the comprehensive risks faced by agriculture under real meteorological conditions. Meteorological disasters occurred at different crop growth stages have different influences on the final crop yield. In this paper, maize in Northeast China is used as an example to study risk assessment method and technology aiming at meteorological disasters at different crop growth stages. [ Method] The whole growth period of maize in Northeast China was divided into four growth stages, namely sowing to seven-leaf, seven-leaf to tasseling, tasseling to milky ripening and milky ripening to maturation, and chilling, drought and flood are regarded as the three main meteorological disasters. Then with data on maize development record, meteorology, soil, crop sown area and yield, etc., and in accordance with the theory of natural disaster risk, the formation mechanism of agro-meteorological disaster risk and the ＂Four Elements＂ causing natural disaster risk, namely the natural disaster risk in certain area is caused by four factors, including hazard of the natural disaster, exposure and vulnerability of the disaster-affected body and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of human beings, the four elements for Northeast China＇s maize of each growth stage were comprehensively analyzed, and risk assessment indices were selected thereby. Multi-indexes method for environment causing the disaster was adopted to select indices on meteorology, crops, physical geography, etc. in order to fully reflect hazard of the main meteorological disasters of each growth stage; assessment indices were selected according to the connotation of exposure and vulnerability of disaster-affected body; based on the relative lag situation of disaster prevention and mitigation, var

关 键 词：东北玉米 冷害 干旱 涝害 风险评价 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学] S42