“环境库兹涅茨”曲线存在么?——来自欠发达地区的证据  

Does the Environmental Kuzets Curve Exist?——Evidence from Underdeveloped Areas of China

作　　者：沈永昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2014年第10期66-84,共19页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71171001)

摘　　要：随着欠发达地区经济的快速发展,环境问题备受关注。文章基于平滑转换自回归理论,选取1992年至2012年欠发达地区三废排放和人均GDP的时间序列数据,通过非线性检验,建立平滑转换回归模型,进行变量的平稳性和非线性协整检验,采用较格点搜索更为简便的通用全局最优技术获得初始值,最后再通过非线性最小二乘估计得到参数估计值。对实证结果分析可知:以安徽省为例的欠发达地区三废排放与经济增长之间不存在倒U型假说,即不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线;二者之间存在一种机制转换关系,并求得转换的门槛值;进一步分析了造成门槛值不同的原因,并提出相关政策建议。With quickly development of economy, the environmental problem of underdeveloped areas has raised considerable concern. This paper is based on the theory of the smooth transition regression model, and selects the time series of three discard to exhaust and underdeveloped areas＇ per capita GDP during the period 1992-2012, and constructs the smooth transition model through nonlinear test, and conducts testing of stationary and nonlinear co-integration, uses the General Global Optimal technique, which is more simple than Grid Point Seek, to obtain initial values, and finally obtains parameter values through nonlinear lest square method. To consider Anhui province as the representative underdeveloped areas, empirical Analysis shows that： There is not inverse U relationship, which is the Environmental Kuznets Curve, between three discards to exhaust and Anhui＇ per capita GDP; , at last, analysis the reason of different threshold values,put forward relevant policy suggestions.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅兹曲线 平滑转换回归 非线性协整检验 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]