中国财政政策产出效应的非对称性研究  

Asymmetric Effect of Fiscal Policy on the Actual Output in China

作　　者：储德银[1,2] 崔莉莉[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [3]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第12期27-39,共13页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"居民边际消费倾向与扩大国内消费问题研究"(10CJY016);博士后基金"财政政策非凯恩斯效应的理论架构与中国实证检验"(2012M520022);安徽省自然科学基金面上项目"政府民生性支出的利益归宿及其形成机制研究"(1508085MG139)

摘　　要：政府在经济周期的不同态势下运用财政政策调控产出,不仅需要科学抉择其政策取向,还要准确把握政策的力度与节奏。本文通过采用实际产出缺口作为门限变量,然后采用非线性门限SVAR模型与广义脉冲响应函数,全面考察了我国财政政策对实际产出波动的调控效果。结果发现:财政政策冲击在"好"与"坏"两种时期对实际产出的冲击效果具有非常明显的非对称性凯恩斯效应。一方面,政府支出冲击在"坏"的时期对实际产出的当期拉动效应要比"好"的时期高出0.1742个百分点,而且对实际产出的累积拉动效应也更为持久和效果更为明显。另一方面,政府税收冲击对实际产出的当期抑制效应在"坏"的时期要高出"好"的时期0.4680个百分点,其滞后效应的变动轨迹在"好"与"坏"两个时期基本一致,但滞后效应的绝对幅度并不相同。本文的研究可以为政府利用财政政策实施区间调控与定向调控提供实际依据,还有助于改善我国财政政策实践的操作效率和运行效果,从而提高财政政策区间调控的科学性与定向调控的精准性。In order to use fiscal policies to control output under different situations of the economic cycle, the government should not only make scientific choice to decide the policy direction, but also accurately grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy. Based on the linear SVAR model, this paper chooses actual output gap as threshold variable. Then, the paper uses the nonlinear threshold SVAR model and the generalized impulse response function to comprehensively inspect the regulation effect of fiscal policy on the actual output. The results show that, compared with linear impulse response function, the impulse of fiscal policy has an asymmetric Keynesian effect on the actual output in the ＂good＂ and ＂bad＂ periods. On one hand, the current pulling effect of government spending impulse on the actual output in the ＂bad＂ period is 0. 1742 percentage point higher than that in the ＂good＂ period, and the cumulative pulling effect is more durable and apparent. On the other hand, the current inhibiting effect of government tax impulse on the actual output in the ＂bad＂ period is 0. 4680 percentage point higher than that in the ＂good＂ period, and the change orbits of hysteretic effect are basically the same in both ＂good＂ and ＂bad＂ periods, but the absolute amplitudes differ. The conclusion of the paper could provide practical basis for the government to adopt fiscal policy to implement interval control and directional control, and decision reference to government for formulating fiscal policy, and help to improve China＇s fiscal policy＇s operation efficiency. At last, it might help improve the scientific nature of interval control of fiscal policy and the accuracy of directional control.

关 键 词：经济周期 财政政策 非线性SVAR模型 广义脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]