独生属性与婚姻匹配研究——对“随机婚配”假定的检验  

Only-Child's Attribute and Marriage Matching:A Test of the "Random Mating" Hypothesis

作　　者：郭志刚[1,2] 许琪[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心 [2]北京大学社会学系 [3]南京大学社会学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2014年第6期26-35,126-127,共10页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国低生育率研究"(项目批准号:12JJD840005)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章使用2010年中国家庭追踪调查数据,对独生子女的婚姻匹配问题进行了深入研究,发现独生子女更可能与独生子女结婚,且非独生子女也更可能与非独生子女结婚。这表明,一方面独生子女身份本身可能构成了一种择偶标准,另一方面人们择偶时对城乡户籍、出生地、年龄和教育程度的多重选择也同样会导致独生子女更可能与独生子女结婚。然而,以往对生育政策调整的人口预测模拟多是基于"随机婚配"假定,因此关于婚配结果分布的估计存在两种误差:一是低估"双独"和"双非"夫妇的比例和规模;二是高估"单独"夫妇的比例和规模。因此,对"双独"和"单独"夫妇数量的估计应当充分考虑婚姻匹配过程的选择性,从而提高预测结果的准确性。Based on the first wave of Chinese Family Panel Study in 2010,this paper studies the marriage formation of women under the age of 40 and finds that only child is more likely to marry only child,and that people with siblings are more likely to marry people with siblings.Therefore,the "Random Mating" hypothesis is far beyond the truth.Under the Chinese context,Hukou status,place of birth,age,and education are four very important factors that one usually takes into consideration when choosing one's spouse,which to a large extent results in that only child has few alternatives but to marry only child.In addition to that,only child itself is also an importani factor of male selection.Previous studies based on "Random Mating" hypnthesis probably underestimate the quantity and proportion of couples that both or neither are only child and overestimate the quantity and proportion of couples that either is only child.Researchers should fully take the selectivity of the process of marriage formation into consideration in order to improve the accuracy of estimation and population projection.

关 键 词：独生子女 婚姻匹配“随机婚配”假定 

分 类 号：D669.1[政治法律—政治学]