我国地方政府收入预算的科学性——基于1994～2010年地方收入预算执行情况的分析  

How Scientific China＇s Local Government Revenue Budgets Are： Based on the Analysis of 1994 ～2010 Local Revenue Budget Performance

作　　者：赵海利[1] 吴明明[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学财政与公共管理学院 [2]浙江财经大学

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2014年第6期135-147,共13页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：教育部重大攻关课题"促进经济发展方式转变的地方财税体制改革研究"(项目编号:12JZD032)

摘　　要：基于1994～2010年30个省（市、自治区）的收入预算执行情况，文章发现“我国地方政府收入预算科学性整体偏低”，“低估政府收入具有普遍性”，“偏差率在东中西部变化趋势基本相同，但有一定扩大趋势”等特点。其中原因既与技术层面的落后有关，更有制度层面的缺陷，特别是与超收资金管理制度、政府官员考核晋升制度有关。基于此，文章建议将收入预算与收入预测相分离，政府购买收入预测服务；将超收资金全部纳入预算内管理；将政府官员考核重点由GDP增长率转向“市场不能干，市场干不好”的地方。Based on the 1994～2010 local revenue budget performance, this paper discusses how scientific local government revenue budgets are. It has the following characteristics： they are not so scientific as a whole, local government revenue is underestimated, the relation with the economic cycle is not significant, and the gap between the deviation in eastern region and those in other areas is widening. The main reasons are technical im- perfections and institutional flaws, especially ＂greater discretion＂ in budgetary surplus funds and ＂more empha- sis on GDP growth in the government official assessment＂. To make local government revenue budget, we suggest that the revenue projection and revenue budget be separated, governments purchase revenue forecasting services, all government funds be incorporated into budgets, and the assessment of government officials focus on how they have done in areas ＂the market cannot do or cannot do well＂.

关 键 词：地方政府收入 收入预算 科学性 偏差率 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]