基于模糊理论的地下变电站LCC估算  

LCC Estimation of Underground Substation Based on Fuzzy Theory

作　　者：杜渐[1,2] 顾洁[1,2] 秦杰 张怡 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电力传输与功率交换控制教育部重点实验室,上海200240 [2]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240 [3]上海电力设计院有限公司,上海200025

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2014年第10期61-68,共8页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：为克服数据缺乏和不确定性因素对全寿命周期成本LCC(life-cycle cost)估算的影响,将模糊理论引入到地下变电站LCC的估算过程中。首先,在分析地下变电站LCC构成的基础上搭建起估算模型。接着,运用模糊平滑法,基于同地区已投运的典型地下变电站的相关数据,对估算模型中的LCC分量进行类比估算。最后,将估算结果模糊化,并根据模糊函数的运算规则得到最终的LCC估算结果。实例应用表明:估算结果很好地体现了地下变电站LCC的不确定性,合理地给出了LCC的估算区间和取值可信度。In order to overcome the lack of data and the influence of uncertain factors,fuzzy theory is applied in the life-cycle cost （LCC） estimation of underground substation.First,on the basis of the analysis of underground substation＇ s LCC components,an estimation model is established.Then,according to relevant data of typical local underground substations at work,the fuzzy smooth method is used to estimate some LCC components.At last,estimation results are fuzzified and fuzzy function operations are used to get the final LCC estimation result.The application example shows that,the estimation result can well reflect the uncertainty of LCC,meanwhile reasonably indicates the LCC＇s value interval and corresponding credibility.

关 键 词：地下变电站 全寿命周期成本 模糊理论 贴近度 模糊平滑 模糊函数 

分 类 号：TM9[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]